Indian Ocean: Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy tracking west-southwestward in the Indian Ocean north of Mauritius Feb. 20 /update 4

Event

Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy is tracking west-southwestward in the Indian Ocean north of Mauritius on Feb. 20. As of 16:00 MUT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 137 km (85 miles) north-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius.

Forecast models indicate that the system will weaken slightly as it passes north of Mauritius and Reunion late Feb. 20-early Feb. 21. Freddy will likely weaken further as it continues to track west-southwestward towards Madagascar. The storm system is forecast to make landfall as an intense tropical cyclone over the central-eastern coast of Madagascar late Feb. 21. Freddy is then forecast to weaken into a moderate tropical storm as it tracks west-southwestward across south-central Madagascar before exiting into the Mozambique Channel late Feb. 22. The system will then briefly strengthen into a severe tropical storm as it tracks westward over the Mozambique Channel Feb. 23 and makes landfall over the central-eastern coast of Mozambique early Feb. 24. After landfall, the storm is forecast to track generally westward over central Mozambique Feb. 24 before dissipating near the border between southern Zimbabwe and northeastern South Africa Feb. 25. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Feb. 20, the Mauritius Meteorological Services have issued a Class 3 cyclone warning (level 3 out of 4) for Mauritius. Moderate-to-heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas are already being felt on the island, and weather conditions will likely deteriorate further in the coming hours. Authorities have canceled more than a dozen Air Mauritius (MK) flights to and from Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam International Airport (MRU) Feb. 19-21. Around 400 people in at-risk areas of Port Louis and other parts of Mauritius have been moved to emergency shelters during the passing of the storm.

Meteo France has issued an orange cyclone alert (the second-highest level on a four-tier scale) across Reunion. A deterioration in weather conditions, most notably strong winds and rough seas, is forecast in the coming hours. Red high wave warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) are in place across the northeastern and eastern coastlines, as well as orange high wave warnings for the northern and southeastern coastlines and yellow warnings for the northwestern coastline. Roland Garros Airport (RUN) has closed from 16:30 Feb. 20 to 09:30 Feb. 21 due to the passing of the storm system. Sections of the main coast road will be closed from late Feb. 20, and other road restrictions could be introduced in the coming hours. Schools, universities, and nurseries are closed Feb. 20-21; the Papang cable car in Saint-Denis is closed from Feb. 20 until further notice.

Madagascar's General Directorate of Meteorology has forecast that Freddy will make landfall between Mahanoro and Manakara late Feb. 21, carrying winds of around 175 kph (109 mph). Rainfall accumulations of more than 20 cm (8 inches) and waves greater than 10 meters (33 feet) in height are possible near where the storm makes landfall. Yellow cyclone warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) are in place for Amoron'i Mania, Atsimo Atsinanana, Atsinanana, Fitovinany, Ihorombe, Matsiatra Ambony, Vakinankaratra, and Vatovavy regions, as well as Anosibe-An'ala District in Alaotra-Mangoro Region. Green cyclone alerts are in effect across Analamanga, Itasy, and Menabe regions, as well as Moramanga District in Alaotra-Mangoro Region and Ankazoabo-Atsimo, Beroroha, Morombe, Sakaraha, and Toliara I-II districts in Atsimo-Andrefana Region. Red heavy swell warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) have been issued across the eastern and southeastern coastline, and yellow warnings are in place for the northeastern and southwestern coastline.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions; it could also render some bridges and roadways impassable. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Mauritius Meteorological Services