Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of Feb. 2 /update 206

Event

Military operations continue in Ukraine's southern and eastern regions as of Feb. 2. Ground combat remains focused in the eastern Donbas area. Russian forces are making progress in Bakhmut following the capture of Soledar in the Donetsk Region Jan. 16; intense fighting continues in the surrounding area. Russian troops conduct continual attacks on several settlements around Bakhmut, including Krasna Hora and Paraskoviivka in the north and Ivanske in the south. As a result, Ukrainian defenders in nearby Bakhmut will likely come under increased pressure from the northern and southern directions in the coming days; Russian troops will probably attempt to encircle and cut off Bakhmut. Elsewhere in Donetsk, Russian forces are assaulting settlements surrounding Avdiivka and are fighting within Marinka but have not made any significant gains in recent days.

Ukraine's offensive activity remains focused in Luhansk Region. Combat is focused around the Svatove-Kreminna front, where both sides are engaged in several positional battles. Russian forces attacked positions west of Kreminna, including Bilohorivka, Dibrova, and Yampolivka, Jan. 29-30. No significant territory has changed hands in recent days. Russian forces continue artillery attacks along the front line further south in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

Moscow is continuing its campaign of air, missile, and drone strikes across Ukraine, launching a major missile attack on targets across Ukraine Jan. 30. Explosions were reported in several regions, including Kharkiv and Kherson. Ukrainian officials reported at least five deaths and several injuries as a result of Russian shelling. Moscow will almost certainly continue sporadic waves of attacks across Ukraine in the coming weeks; targets will include civilian energy infrastructure, which will likely cause emergency power outages.

Context

Russian forces will likely continue their offensive operations in the Donetsk Region with the goal of taking an operationally-important city such as Bakhmut or Avdiivka, which they can present as a success to a domestic audience with the aim of maintaining support for the war. However, frontal assaults in recent weeks have yielded limited progress while resulting in significant Russian casualties. Nonetheless, Ukrainian commanders state they are coming under increased pressure in recent days, as Russian attacks continue. Ukrainian forces would likely seek to attrite Russian forces as much as possible before eventually withdrawing from the city, should that become necessary.

Reports indicate Russian reinforcements continue to arrive in the Luhansk Region, and Moscow will likely seek to step-up counterattacks in this area to regain the offensive initiative, particularly around Kreminna. Lacking the combat potential, particularly heavy equipment, to mount a major offensive in the short term, Russia will likely rely on amassing regular troops to overwhelm Ukrainian defensive positions. Ukrainian offensive action in the region has largely stalled near Dibrova, as well as on approaches to Svatove, but limited ground assaults will almost certainly continue in the days to come.

Moscow has sought to escalate the conflict in alternative ways in an apparent effort to force Ukraine to capitulate and coerce its allies to reduce their support. This includes increased air, missile, and drone strikes targeting Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, disrupting power, water, and heating services over the winter period. Since Jan. 1, Moscow has increasingly relied on drones to conduct these attacks, likely to conserve diminished missile stocks. Drones are more susceptible to Ukrainian air defense systems; most or all are shot down before hitting their targets. Nonetheless, Ukrainian officials believe Russia maintains enough missiles to launch multiple barrages, and Ukrainian air defense systems are being forced to expend costly and finite resources repelling repeated drone attacks. Successful attacks will likely result in widespread utility outages and collateral damage to civilians.

Russian cross-border artillery strikes in border regions of the Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions have escalated in recent weeks. However, a major offensive does not appear imminent, though limited incursions to harass Ukrainian forces and pin significant numbers of defenders in place remain possible. Artillery strikes also regularly cause utility disruptions and civilian casualties.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.