Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of Feb. 24 /update 209

Event

Military operations are ongoing in Ukraine's southern and eastern regions as of Feb. 24. Ground combat remains focused in the eastern Donbas area.

Russian forces continue to make slow, grinding advances in the Donetsk Region, particularly to the north and northwest of Bakhmut. Following the Feb. 12 capture Krasna Hora, the Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces (UGS) confirmed Feb. 22 that Russian forces have severed the M03 Road linking Bakhmut and Slovyansk. Combat has since been reported in Berkhivka and near Dubovo-Vasylivka, to the northwest of Bakhmut. Russian forces have made limited progress in eastern Bakhmut; however, they are reportedly suffering heavy personnel and equipment losses in intense fighting. Daily Russian infantry assaults on the town of Ivanivske, to the south of Bakhmut, continue to be repulsed by Ukrainian defenders. Nonetheless, the Ukrainian defensive line along the T0504 Road linking Bakhmut and Konstantynivka, which runs through Ivanivske, will likely come under increasing pressure in the coming days.

Elsewhere in Donetsk, Russian forces conduct regular ground assaults and artillery strikes against Ukrainian positions north and south of Avdiivka, including in Novobakhmutivka and near Pervomaiske, but have not made any significant gains in recent days. Further south in the region, Ukrainian defenders reportedly conducted a counterattack against Russian forces near Vuhledar; however, the outcome of the attack remains unclear. Russian forces have committed several units to attacks in this area for little gain thus far.

Ukraine's offensive activity remains focused in the Luhansk Region. Combat is focused around the Svatove-Kreminna front, where both sides are engaged in several positional battles. Russia continues to reinforce troops in the Kreminna area, with attacks increasingly taking place from Kreminna to Ploschanka, with the likely immediate objective of pushing Ukrainian forces back towards Dibrova, Troitske, and Lyman. Further north, in the Kharkiv Region, the UGS states Russia attempted to infiltrate the international border near Bolohivka with a reconnaissance force, but was repulsed. A separate attempt to infiltrate Ukraine with a small force was reportedly made near Fyholivka, Kharkiv Region, but was also forced to retreat. Russia has maintained heavy shelling of the Kupyansk area, as well as regular rocket fire on Kharkiv city itself. Further Russian attempts to infiltrate the international border remain likely, but a major offensive from this quarter is not anticipated over the short term. Similarly, artillery exchanges have continued between the opposing sides across front lines in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, but major ground assaults are unlikely in the immediate term.

Moscow is continuing its campaign of air, missile, and drone strikes across Ukraine. The last major missile attack on targets in various parts of the country occurred early Feb. 16, when Russian units launched 36 projectiles into northern and western Ukraine, as well as the central regions of Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad; Kyiv's forces managed to shoot down at least 16 of the projectiles. At least six deaths and several injuries occurred as a result of Russian shelling. Moscow will almost certainly continue sporadic waves of attacks across Ukraine in the coming weeks; targets will include civilian energy infrastructure, which will likely cause emergency power outages.

Context

Russian forces will likely continue their offensive operations in Donetsk Region with the goal of taking an operationally-important city such as Bakhmut or Avdiivka, which they can present as a success to a domestic audience with the aim of maintaining support for the war. However, frontal assaults in recent weeks have yielded limited progress while resulting in significant Russian casualties. Nonetheless, Ukrainian commanders state they are coming under increased pressure as Russian attacks continue. Ukrainian forces will likely seek to attrite Russian forces as much as possible before eventually withdrawing from locations coming under pressure, should that become necessary.

Reports indicate Russian reinforcements continue to arrive in the Luhansk Region, and Moscow will likely seek to step-up counterattacks in this area to regain the offensive initiative, particularly around Kreminna. Lacking the combat potential, particularly heavy equipment, to mount a major offensive in the short term, Russia will likely rely on amassing regular troops to overwhelm Ukrainian defensive positions. Ukrainian offensive action in the region has largely stalled northwest and west of Kreminna, as well as on approaches to Svatove, but limited ground assaults will almost certainly continue in the days to come.

Moscow has sought to escalate the conflict in alternative ways in an apparent effort to force Ukraine to capitulate and coerce its allies to reduce their support. This includes increased air, missile, and drone strikes targeting Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, disrupting power, water, and heating services over the winter period. Since Jan. 1, Moscow has increasingly relied on drones to conduct these attacks, forcing Ukraine to expend costly and finite resources to repel repeated drone attacks and possibly reveal air defense battery positions. Ukrainian officials believe Russia maintains enough missiles to launch multiple barrages. Successful attacks will likely result in widespread utility outages and collateral damage to civilians.

Russian cross-border artillery strikes in border regions of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions have escalated in recent weeks. However, a major offensive does not appear imminent, though limited incursions to harass Ukrainian forces and pin significant numbers of defenders in place remain possible. Artillery strikes also regularly cause utility disruptions and civilian casualties.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air alert notification in your chosen city or region of Ukraine from the Civil Defense System. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.