France: Activists likely to continue nationwide protests, strikes against pension reform through late March /update 10

Activists likely to continue strikes, protests against pension reform into late March. Unions plan nationwide strike for March 28.

Event

Widespread civil unrest related to pension reforms will likely continue causing nationwide disruptions in France through late March. Labor unions and activist groups are continuing a campaign of strike and protest action denouncing pension reform as of March 24. The multi-sector union federation has announced a tenth day of nationwide strikes on March 28.

Demonstrations are widespread and occur daily in most major cities, particularly Paris. Protesters are increasingly blocking major roads, typically ring roads close to major cities, and obstructing access to transport hubs such as bus and train depots. Clashes have broken out, and police have resorted to using teargas in several locations in recent days. Details for the mass rallies on March 28 are not yet confirmed. Tens of thousands are likely to attend, based on previous events.

Transport disruptions during the multi-sector strike on March 28 are not yet confirmed. Typically, between 25 and 75 percent of services will operate on Paris' Metro and RER lines. The SNCF usually runs 50 percent of TGV services and 60 percent of TER services nationwide. Intercity trains will also likely be disrupted.

It is not known whether air traffic controllers will join the strike on March 28. On previous strike days, authorities reduced inbound and outbound flight services at Paris-Orly Airport (ORY) by 30 percent and by 20 percent at some regional airports, including Marseille-Provence (MRS), Toulouse-Blagnac (TLS) and Lyon-Saint Exupery (LYS).

Industrial action in oil refineries impacts fuel supplies, despite authorities ordering workers at some depots to resume work. Some fuel service stations are experiencing fuel shortages, particularly in Marseille and the south of France. More severe shortages are possible in the coming days.

The unrest shows no signs of abating, and the government has not indicated a willingness to abandon its pension reform initiative; hence, planned and spontaneous protests will probably continue through at least the end of March. Authorities will maintain an increased security presence near any demonstrations that materialize and near government buildings. Large crowds and associated security measures, including road closures and movement restrictions, will result in localized transport disruptions. Clashes between activists and security services are possible; riot police may use tear gas or similar measures to disperse unruly crowds.

Context

Disruptive demonstrations broke out nationwide in reaction to the government invoking Article 49.3 of the French Constitution to pass the pension reform without requiring a vote in the National Assembly. The reform raises the retirement age from 62 to 64. The proposed amendment has prompted widespread civil unrest through early 2023. President Emanuel Macron's government has narrowly survived two no-confidence votes in the National Assembly in recent days, clearing the way for the bill to become law. Further protests are almost certain.

Advice

Confirm all transport reservations as well as public- and private-sector appointments through late March, including at public health centers and other government facilities. Do not check out of accommodations until onward travel is confirmed. Avoid all demonstrations as a routine security precaution and to mitigate personal exposure to any associated disruptions. Allow extra time for travel in major cities. Heed instructions from local authorities and leave the area at the first sign of a confrontation.