South Africa: Service delivery protests likely nationwide through at least mid-2023 /update 1

Event

Service delivery protests are likely nationwide in South Africa through at least mid-2023. Growing popular discontent over load shedding, electricity price increases, water restrictions, crime, or corruption could lead to spontaneous demonstrations. These could involve road blockages, minor acts of arson, and clashes. Protest hotspots include informal settlements near major urban centers, major highways, large shopping centers, and governmental buildings. Prolonged load shedding, increased water shortages, or spikes in criminal activity could escalate tensions and increase the likelihood of violence.

Should civil unrest materialize, authorities will likely deploy police to manage eventual protests. Officials will seek to disperse or clear demonstrators and roadblocks that materialize, which could trigger clashes. Protesters may also engage in more violent acts of public disruption, including looting and attacks targeting commercial transport vehicles. Any unrest is likely to result in ground travel and public transport disruptions. Disruptions to freight transport and business operations are likely.

Context

South Africa is currently experiencing its highest levels of load shedding, reaching stage 6 power cuts in January and February 2023. This has resulted in eight-to-12-hour daily electricity cuts, severely impacting businesses and consumers. Consequently, residents are vulnerable to recurring water shortages, as water pumps cannot effectively operate during load shedding. Reports also suggest that crime increases during load shedding, including theft, carjacking, sexual assaults, kidnapping, and murder.

Service delivery protests are very common in South Africa. Protesters recurrently block major and secondary routes with debris during busy rush hour periods (early morning or evening); however, blockages, particularly to national highways (such as the N1/2/3/4/5/6/7), are usually cleared shortly after the start of the event. Acts of arson are rare but not uncommon. Some protests can last for several hours; even if a protest ends, it can resume in the coming days if demands are not met. Deadly violence is rare, with officials generally engaged in negotiations to end unrest; nonetheless, clashes cannot be discounted entirely.

Advice

Avoid all protests. Heed the directives of the local authorities and monitor local media for updates as protests will likely occur on short notice. Consider alternative routes around the impact areas. Plan for disruptions to both general travel and the transport of freight. Reconfirm the status of routes in the hours preceding travel. Reconfirm all public transport services that operate in or through the affected areas.