Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of March 2 /update 210

Event

Military operations are ongoing in Ukraine's southern and eastern regions as of March 2. Ground combat remains focused in the eastern Donbas area.

Russian forces continue to focus offensive efforts on Bakhmut in the Donetsk Region, where they are making slow, grinding gains. Russian forces are attempting to encircle Bakhmut as they advance around Yahidne to the northwest and are pressuring Ivanivske to the southwest; combat is ongoing in the outskirts of the city itself. Russian forces severed the M03 Road linking Bakhmut and Slovyansk Feb. 22, and the T0504 Road linking Bakhmut and Konstantynivka is under increasing pressure from Russian troops near Ivanivske. Nonetheless, Ukrainian officials assert they can still withdraw their troops from Bakhmut at any point; Ukrainian troops defending the city continue to significantly damage and degrade the attacking Russian forces in the meantime.

Elsewhere in Donetsk Region, Russian forces continue ground offensive activity on several Ukrainian-held settlements between Avdiivka and Vuhledar, including Vodyane, Krasnohorivka, and Marinka. The frontline is stable in this area, with Russian forces gaining no significant territory in recent days.

Active combat continues in Luhansk Region, where both Ukrainian and Russian forces are conducting offensive activity along the Svatove-Kreminna line. Offensive momentum has been with Russia in recent days as they carry out an increasing proportion of ground assaults. Russian forces have reportedly gained several hundred meters of territory along much of the front line in this area but have not verifiably captured any significant settlements. Russia has maintained heavy shelling of the Kupyansk area, as well as regular rocket fire on Kharkiv city itself. Similarly, artillery exchanges have continued between the opposing sides across front lines in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, but major ground assaults are unlikely in the immediate term.

Moscow is continuing its campaign of air, missile, and drone strikes across Ukraine. A Russian missile struck an apartment block in Zaporizhzhia March 2, killing two. Moscow launched 14 drones at targets across Ukraine Feb. 27; Ukrainian air defense systems shot down 11 drones, but strikes in Khmelnytskyi killed at least two and injured three. The last major missile attack on targets in various parts of the country occurred early Feb. 16, when Russian units launched 36 projectiles into northern and western Ukraine, as well as the central regions of Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad; Kyiv's forces managed to shoot down at least 16 of the projectiles. Moscow will almost certainly continue sporadic waves of attacks across Ukraine in the coming weeks; targets will include civilian energy infrastructure, which will likely cause emergency power outages.

Context

Russian forces will likely continue their offensive operations in Donetsk Region with the goal of taking an operationally-important city such as Bakhmut or Avdiivka, which they can present as a success to a domestic audience with the aim of maintaining support for the war. However, frontal assaults in recent weeks have yielded limited progress while resulting in significant Russian casualties. Nonetheless, Ukrainian commanders state they are coming under increased pressure as Russian attacks continue. Ukrainian forces will likely seek to attrite Russian forces as much as possible before eventually withdrawing from locations coming under pressure, should that become necessary.

Reports indicate Russian reinforcements continue to arrive in the Luhansk Region, and Moscow will likely seek to step-up counterattacks in this area to maintain the offensive initiative, particularly around Kreminna. Lacking the combat potential, particularly heavy equipment, to mount a major offensive in the short term, Russia will likely rely on amassing regular troops to overwhelm Ukrainian defensive positions. Ukrainian offensive action in the region has largely stalled northwest and west of Kreminna, as well as on approaches to Svatove, but limited ground assaults will almost certainly continue in the days to come.

Moscow has sought to escalate the conflict in alternative ways in an apparent effort to force Ukraine to capitulate and coerce its allies to reduce their support. This includes increased air, missile, and drone strikes targeting Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, disrupting power, water, and heating services over the winter period. Since Jan. 1, Moscow has increasingly relied on drones to conduct these attacks, forcing Ukraine to expend costly and finite resources to repel repeated drone attacks and possibly reveal air defense battery positions. Ukrainian officials believe Russia maintains enough missiles to launch multiple barrages. Successful attacks will likely result in widespread utility outages and collateral damage to civilians.

Russian cross-border artillery strikes in border regions of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions have escalated in recent weeks. However, a major offensive does not appear imminent, though limited incursions to harass Ukrainian forces and pin significant numbers of defenders in place remain possible. Artillery strikes also regularly cause utility disruptions and civilian casualties.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air alert notification in your chosen city or region of Ukraine from the Civil Defense System. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.