Sudan: Further clashes are likely nationwide in the coming days as fighting continues as of May 11 /update 23

Event

Further clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) remain likely over the coming days nationwide as violence continues, May 11. Despite the ongoing peace talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and the latest ceasefire agreement, which will last through 23:59 May 11, violence continues, notably in Khartoum. Severe internet and mobile phone service disruptions have been intermittently reported nationwide, while food, water, medicine, and fuel supplies are limited, notably in Khartoum.

The casualty toll from fighting across the country has reportedly surpassed 700 civilian fatalities, with approximately 5,100 people wounded. According to International Organization for Migration (IOM), more than 700,000 people have been internally displaced and another 150,000 have fled the country since the fighting began in mid-April.

Travel disruptions
Sudanese officials have closed civilian airspace until May 13; only aid and evacuation flights are allowed. The closure is likely to be extended after this date. Moreover, Chad's land border with Sudan remains closed until further notice due to the violence; however, no other neighboring countries have formally taken similar measures, although land borders are most likely subject to heightened surveillance. Reports indicate that thousands of people have crossed the land borders with Libya, Chad, CAR, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Egypt to flee the violence.

Khartoum
As of May 11, large areas of the city remain contested, including in the city center near Khartoum International Airport (KRT), the Presidential Palace, and the Army Command, as well as in Khartoum North, the twin city of Omdurman, and along the Nile bridges. SAF airstrikes targeting RSF positions are occasionally reported. It is unclear which side retains control of key infrastructure and military installations, though de facto ruler General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has claimed that the SAF controls all the country's airports except for KRT. The continued fighting between RSF and SAF has prompted power outages and water shortages in several areas. Most hospitals are either out of service or running at very low capabilities due to damage and lack of medicines.

Criminal incidents persist in the Khartoum area, despite authorities deploying additional police forces to combat looting, home invasions, assaults, and carjackings. Civilians fleeing Khartoum and evacuation convoys have also been attacked by artillery fire or criminal elements.

Elsewhere
Since April 15, clashes have also been reported nationwide, including in El Obeid, Ad-Damazin, El Fasher, Geneina, El Obeid, Merowe, Nyala, and Port Sudan. The security situation has especially deteriorated in West Darfur, where concerns grow over a possible escalation of communal tensions due to the security vacuum. Heavy clashes between rival tribes have been reported in Geneina, resulting in an unspecified number of civilian casualties. The looting of police stations has reportedly provided civilians with heavy weapons. It is unclear whether SAF or RSF forces were involved in the violence. In response, authorities in Gedaref State declared a month-long state of emergency starting April 30, banning trade in firearms, as well as the informal selling or hoarding of petrol. It is unclear whether the previously active states of emergency in South Kordofan and West Darfur remain active.

Rival security forces will almost certainly remain deployed nationwide, particularly around routes near military bases, government buildings, telecommunications centers, and strategic transport nodes. Further state-of-emergency declarations are likely. Disruptions to road travel, airports, border crossings, internet and mobile phone services, and access to basic goods are likely. Local authorities may also impose curfews.

Context

Clashes began on April 15 and were triggered by persistent tensions between the RSF and SAF. Both sides have blamed the other for initiating the violence. The government has labeled the RSF a "rebel" force. The recent fighting between the SAF and RSF is a continuation of a years-long power struggle between Sudan's de facto ruler General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the leader of the RSF, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, widely known as Hemedti. The pair have quarreled over several issues, including plans to integrate the RSF into the SAF, effectively resulting in Hemedti losing control over the former.

Tensions between the two leaders worsened after the military and civilian opposition groups signed a deal to end the impasse between security and political elites in December. Under the signed framework, the formation of a transitional civilian government was scheduled in early April; however, several issues hindered the deal's implementation, including the abovementioned disagreement between al-Burhan and Hemedti over the integration of the RSF into the military.

The RSF mainly evolved out of the Janjaweed militias, which former President Omar Bashir had organized to put down an uprising in Darfur in 2003. The RSF is separate from the Sudanese regular military and has been competing for power and resources for years. In 2013, Bashir reshaped the group into a paramilitary organization by giving its leaders military ranks.

Advice

Persons planning to travel to Sudan should defer travel until the situation stabilizes. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Avoid concentrations of security personnel. Liaise with trusted contacts for further information. Reconfirm the status of road routes if travel is unavoidable. Travel with identification. Conserve battery power on essential equipment, such as mobile phones. Conserve basic supplies, including food and water.

Resources

French Embassy in Sudan
US Embassy in Sudan
UK Foreign Travel Advice
Australian Government (Smartraveller)
Government of Canada - Sudan Travel Advice
German Embassy in Sudan
Embassy of Japan in Sudan