Sudan: Further clashes between rival factions likely nationwide into at least late May despite ceasefire agreement from May 22 /update 26

Event

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) signed a seven-day ceasefire brokered by the US and Saudi Arabia on May 20. The truce, including humanitarian arrangements, will take effect from 21:45 on May 22 and should remain in place through at least 21:45 on May 29. However, it is unlikely that SAF and RSF forces will fully abide by the ceasefire; previous ceasefires have been violated.

Airstrikes, explosions, and heavy machine gunfire have been reported in several cities since the fighting began in mid-April. The casualty toll has reportedly surpassed 705 fatalities, with more than 5,000 people wounded nationwide. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), more than 843,000 people have been internally displaced, and another 259,000 have fled Sudan since the violence first erupted.

Severe internet and mobile phone service disruptions have occurred intermittently nationwide, while food, water, medicine, and fuel are in limited supply, notably in Khartoum.

Travel disruptions
Sudanese officials have closed the nation's airspace until at least May 31; only aid and evacuation flights are allowed. The government could extend the closure beyond its current expiration date. Moreover, Chad's land border with Sudan remains closed until further notice due to the violence. No other neighboring countries have formally taken similar measures, although land borders are most likely subject to heightened surveillance. Reports indicate that thousands of people have crossed the land borders into Libya, Chad, CAR, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Egypt to flee the violence.

Khartoum
Large areas of the nation's capital remained contested, including in the city center near Khartoum International Airport (KRT), the Presidential Palace, and the Army Command, as well as in Khartoum North, the twin city of Omdurman, and along some of the Nile bridges. SAF airstrikes targeting RSF positions are occasionally reported. It is unclear which side retains control of key infrastructure and military installations, though de facto ruler General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has claimed that the SAF controls all the country's airports except for KRT. The continued fighting between the RSF and SAF has prompted power outages and water shortages in several areas. Most hospitals are either closed or operating at reduced capacity due to damage and lack of medicines.

Criminal incidents persist in the Khartoum area despite authorities deploying additional police to combat looting, home invasions, assaults, and carjackings. Evacuation convoys and civilians fleeing Khartoum have also been attacked by artillery fire or criminal elements.

Elsewhere
Clashes have occurred nationwide, including in El Obeid, Ad-Damazin, El Fasher, Geneina, El Obeid, Merowe, Nyala, and Port Sudan. The security situation has especially deteriorated in West Darfur, where there are growing concerns over a possible escalation in communal tensions due to the security vacuum. Heavy clashes between rival tribes have been reported in Geneina and more recently in Nyala, and Zalingei, resulting in an unspecified number of civilian casualties. Whether SAF or RSF forces have been involved in the violence is unclear. In response, a state of emergency is in force in Gedaref State through at least May 30. It is unclear whether the previously active states of emergency in South Kordofan and West Darfur remain active.

Rival security forces will almost certainly remain deployed nationwide, particularly around routes near military bases, government buildings, telecommunications centers, and strategic transport nodes. Further state-of-emergency declarations are likely. Disruptions to road travel, airports, border crossings, internet and mobile phone services, and access to basic goods are likely. Local authorities may also impose curfews.

Context

Clashes began on April 15 and were triggered by persistent tensions between the RSF and SAF. Both sides have blamed the other for initiating the violence. The government has labeled the RSF a "rebel" force. The recent fighting between the SAF and RSF is a continuation of a years-long power struggle between Sudan's de facto ruler General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the leader of the RSF General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, widely known as Hemedti. The pair have quarreled over several issues, including plans to integrate the RSF into the SAF, effectively resulting in Hemedti losing control over the former.

Tensions between the two leaders worsened after the military and civilian opposition groups signed a deal to end the impasse between security and political elites in December. Under the signed framework, the formation of a transitional civilian government was scheduled in early April; however, several issues hindered the deal's implementation, including the abovementioned disagreement between al-Burhan and Hemedti over the integration of the RSF into the military.

The RSF mainly evolved out of the Janjaweed militias, which former President Omar Bashir had organized to put down an uprising in Darfur in 2003. The RSF is separate from the Sudanese regular military and has been competing for power and resources for years. In 2013, Bashir reshaped the group into a paramilitary organization by giving its leaders military ranks.

Advice

Persons planning to travel to Sudan should defer travel until the situation stabilizes. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Avoid concentrations of security personnel. Liaise with trusted contacts for further information. Reconfirm road status if ground travel is unavoidable. Carry personal identification documents at all times. Conserve battery power on essential equipment, such as mobile phones. Conserve basic supplies, including food and water.

Resources

French Embassy in Sudan
US Embassy in Sudan
UK Foreign Travel Advice
Australian Government (Smartraveller)
Government of Canada - Sudan Travel Advice
German Embassy in Sudan
Embassy of Japan in Sudan