Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of May 4 /update 218

Event

Military operations are ongoing in Ukraine's southern and eastern regions as of May 4. Ground combat is concentrated along front lines in the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv regions, while artillery bombardments and air strikes occur regularly along a wider area including Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions. In recent days, Russian air strikes have intensified against Kyiv.

As of May 4, Russian missile and drone attacks have targeted Kyiv four times in the last seven days. These strikes represent an increase in long-range offensive activity. Ukrainian authorities continue to neutralize many of the incoming missiles and drones, and the attacks have failed to significantly disrupt Kyiv’s electricity supplies and other utilities. On May 3, Russian shelling in Kherson killed at least 23 civilians. Further long-range airstrikes and bombardments targeting urban centers are likely in the coming days.

In the Donetsk region, Russian forces continue their assault in Bakhmut. Ground troops are making very slow progress both within the urban center and to its north and south. Ukrainian troops continue to defend the western parts of Bakhmut and retain control of their supply lines. Elsewhere in Donetsk, the Ukrainian general staff reports significant military activity north of Avdiivka where Russian forces continue to be deployed in an attempt to encircle the Ukrainian stronghold.

Artillery activity continues daily in the Luhansk region. Russian forces continue to make limited ground assaults to the north and south of Kremina.

In the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, there is further repositioning of both Ukrainian and Russian troops, amid persistent rumors of a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive. The city of Kherson will be under a complete curfew from 20:00 May 6 to 06:00 May 9. Local authorities will stop all entry and exit from the city, and advise residents to stock up on food and medicines. This may be an indication of Ukrainian troop movements but it could equally be part of a deception operation.

Context

As wintry conditions become less severe, Russian offensive activity will probably continue to increase in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions slowly, and the likelihood of a major Ukrainian counteroffensive grows. However, frontal assaults in recent weeks have yielded limited progress, resulting in numerous Russian casualties. While Ukrainian forces are also taking casualties and losing equipment, their losses are likely less severe than those of Russia. Additionally, Ukrainian equipment losses are increasingly replaced by advanced Western weaponry and equipment, though probably not yet in sufficient quantities to launch major counteroffensive operations. Ukrainian forces will likely seek to attrite Moscow's forces as much as possible before eventually withdrawing from locations subject to significant Russian pressure, should that become necessary.

Russia's spring conscription period began on March 30. Russia typically conducts two rounds of conscription per year, drafting roughly 134,000 men. Russian President Vladimir Putin's latest decree authorizes drafting up to 147,000 men. However, they are unlikely to appear in the combat zones of Ukraine. Russian conscripts must undergo months of training before being considered combat-ready, and Russian officials and civil society previously engaged in rare public opposition to Putin's regime following conscript deaths in 2022.

Ukraine's Ministry of Energy authorized the resumption of electricity exports on April 7, indicating Russia's plan to plunge Ukraine into an extensive blackout failed; therefore, Moscow is returning to the tactics used in the first days of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Their targets during future mass missile and drone attacks might increasingly include strategic sites, such as military facilities and routes for the supply of Western weapons, including train stations and rail hubs.

Ukrainian estimates of Russian missile stockpiles continue to suggest that their number is decreasing. However, Russian domestic missile production continues, and Russia has increasingly repurposed S-300 and anti-ship missiles for ground attacks. Additionally, in recent barrages, Russia has launched older, Soviet-era cruise missiles, such as the Kh-55, without payloads in a likely effort to trigger Ukrainian air defenses. Additionally, Moscow continues to launch Iranian Shahed-136 drones, forcing Ukraine to expend costly and finite resources to repel these attacks and possibly reveal air defense battery positions.

Russian cross-border artillery strikes in the border areas of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions continue to escalate. Although a major offensive does not appear imminent, limited incursions to harass Ukrainian forces and pin significant numbers of defenders in place remain possible. Artillery strikes also regularly cause utility disruptions and civilian casualties.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air alert notification in your chosen city or region of Ukraine from the Civil Defense System. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.