Sudan: Further clashes between rival factions likely nationwide into at least mid-June despite a 24-hour ceasefire agreement from June 10 /update 30

Event

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) signed a 24-hour ceasefire brokered by the US and Saudi Arabia on June 9. The truce, including humanitarian arrangements, will take effect from 06:00 on June 10. However, it is unlikely that SAF and RSF forces will fully abide by the ceasefire; previous ceasefires have been violated.

Airstrikes, explosions, and heavy machine gunfire have been reported in several cities since the fighting began in mid-April. The casualty toll has reportedly surpassed 780 fatalities, with more than 5,000 people wounded nationwide. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), more than 1. 4 million people have been internally displaced, and another 476,800 have fled Sudan since the violence first erupted.

Severe internet and mobile phone service disruptions have occurred intermittently nationwide, while food, water, medicine, and fuel are in limited supply, notably in Khartoum.

Travel disruptions
Sudanese officials have closed the nation's airspace until at least June 15, permitting only aid and evacuation flights. The government could extend the closure beyond its current expiration date. Moreover, Chad's land border with Sudan remains closed until further notice due to the violence. No other neighboring countries have formally taken similar measures, although land borders are most likely subject to heightened surveillance. Reports indicate that thousands of people have crossed the land borders into Libya, Chad, CAR, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Egypt to flee the violence.

Khartoum
Large areas of the nation's capital remain contested, including in the city center near Khartoum International Airport (KRT), the Presidential Palace, and the Army Command, as well as in Khartoum North, the twin city of Omdurman, and along some of the Nile bridges. Reports indicate occasional SAF airstrikes targeting RSF positions. It is unclear which side retains control of critical infrastructure and military installations; however, de facto ruler General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has claimed that the SAF controls all the country's airports except for KRT. The continued fighting between the RSF and SAF has caused power outages and water shortages in several areas. Most hospitals are closed or operating at reduced capacity due to damage and lack of medicine.

Criminal incidents persist in the Khartoum area despite authorities deploying additional police to combat looting, home invasions, assaults, and carjackings. Artillery fire and criminal elements have also targeted evacuation convoys and civilians fleeing Khartoum.

Elsewhere
Clashes have occurred nationwide, including in El Obeid, Ad-Damazin, El Fasher, Geneina, El Obeid, Merowe, Nyala, and Port Sudan. The security situation has significantly deteriorated in West Darfur, where there are growing concerns over a possible escalation in communal tensions due to the security vacuum. Reports indicate heavy clashes have occurred between rival tribes in Geneina and, more recently, in Nyala and Zalingei, resulting in an unspecified number of civilian casualties. SAF or RSF forces' involvement in the violence is unclear. In Red Sea State, authorities have extended the state of emergency through at least Aug. 30 and imposed a 23:00-05:00 curfew from May 30. It is unclear whether the previously active states of emergency in Gedarif, South Kordofan, and West Darfur remain active.

Rival security forces will almost certainly remain deployed nationwide, particularly around routes near military bases, government buildings, telecommunications centers, and strategic transport nodes. Further state-of-emergency declarations are likely. Disruptions to road travel, airports, border crossings, internet and mobile phone services, and access to essential goods are probable. Local authorities may also impose curfews.

Context

Clashes began April 15 following persistent tensions between the RSF and SAF. Both sides blame the other for initiating the violence. The government has labeled the RSF a "rebel" force. The recent fighting between the SAF and RSF is a continuation of a years-long power struggle between Sudan's de facto ruler General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the leader of the RSF, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, widely known as Hemedti. The pair have quarreled over several issues, including plans to integrate the RSF into the SAF, effectively resulting in Hemedti losing control over the former.

Tensions between the two leaders worsened after the military and civilian opposition groups signed a deal to end the impasse between security and political elites in December. Under the signed framework, the formation of a transitional civilian government was scheduled in early April; however, several issues hindered the deal's implementation, including the abovementioned disagreement between al-Burhan and Hemedti over the integration of the RSF into the military.

The RSF mainly evolved out of the Janjaweed militias, which former President Omar Bashir had organized to put down an uprising in Darfur in 2003. The RSF is separate from the Sudanese regular military and has been competing for power and resources for years. In 2013, Bashir reshaped the group into a paramilitary organization by giving its leaders military ranks.

Advice

Persons planning to travel to Sudan should defer travel until the situation stabilizes. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Avoid concentrations of security personnel. Liaise with trusted contacts for further information. Reconfirm road status if ground travel is unavoidable. Carry personal identification documents at all times. Conserve battery power on essential equipment, such as mobile phones. Conserve basic supplies, including food and water.

Resources

French Embassy in Sudan
US Embassy in Sudan
UK Foreign Travel Advice
Australian Government (Smartraveller)
Government of Canada - Sudan Travel Advice
German Embassy in Sudan
Embassy of Japan in Sudan