DRC: Clashes between M23 rebels and security forces possible in North Kivu Province through early August /update 7

Event

Further fighting between the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC) and the M23 rebel group is possible in the North Kivu Province through at least early August despite a lower fighting intensity recently. The presence of M23 rebels continues to be reported in areas in Rutshuru, Nyiragongo, and Masisi territories.

Heightened security is almost certain in the affected areas over the coming weeks. Further violence may involve M23 rebels, FARDC, regional forces, and other armed groups in the region. Officials could implement movement-restrictive measures in response to developments and assessments. Locals may stage further protests in the region, including Goma, to denounce the perceived inaction of security forces. Locals and DRC officials have heavily criticized the United Nations Mission in DRC (MONUSCO). Such demonstrations have been frequent in recent weeks.

Context

The M23 is seeking to pressure the government to honor a peace agreement signed in 2013, which allows the reintegration of the armed forces into society, among other issues. The M23 has repeatedly asked for direct dialogue with DRC authorities, which have so far refused, making a conflict resolution difficult in the near term.

Since November 2021, the M23 rebel group has increased attacks targeting armed forces in the eastern DRC. In June 2022, the M23 captured the town of Bunagana in Rutshuru Territory and began marching toward Goma. Concerns grew particularly in mid-November 2022 following fighting between the M23 and the FARDC near Kibumba, located about 20 km (13 miles) north of Goma.

East African Community (EAC) leaders agreed in late 2022 to deploy a military force in eastern DRC. Rebels have since withdrawn from several areas and handed them over to the EAC force. DRC officials have recently accused the EAC force of inactivity and convenience with the M23. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) also agreed in early May to deploy armed forces in the region; further details regarding the timeline or the number of troops and their mandate compared to the EAC force are unavailable.

Since the M23 resurgence, tensions have significantly increased between Rwanda and the DRC. DRC officials have accused Rwanda of supporting the rebels. Several cross-border incidents involving DRC and Rwanda occurred, including an exchange of fire between Congolese and Rwandan security forces at the Petite Barriere border crossing between Goma (DRC) and Gisenyi (Rwanda) in June 2022.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to conflict-affected areas in eastern DRC until the situation stabilizes. Maintain contact with diplomatic missions. Consult local security partners on the viability of traveling in and around the impacted locations. Travel in convoy and during daylight hours only. Adhere to directives issued by local authorities. Reconfirm the status of public transportation, road routes, and border crossings before departure.