Luzon Strait: Typhoon Doksuri tracking northwestward in the Luzon Strait as of late July 26 /update 6

Event

Typhoon Doksuri (known in the Philippines as Egay) is tracking northwestward in the Luzon Strait late July 26, having passed through the Babuyan Islands, Philippines, early July 26, making landfall over northern Fuga Island. As of 20:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 728 km (452 miles) east-southeast of Hong Kong.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will maintain typhoon strength as it tracks northwestward across the northeastern South China Sea, July 26-28, passing southwest of Taiwan on July 27. The system will likely weaken before making landfall over southeastern Fujian Province in mainland China as a weak typhoon early July 28. After making landfall, Doksuri is expected to weaken into a tropical storm as it turns to track generally northward across Fujian and Jiangxi provinces July 28-29 before dissipating over eastern Hubei Province late July 29. Uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late July 26, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued the following warnings:

• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 3: Northwestern parts of Ilocos Norte Province.

• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 2: The rest of Ilocos Norte and Cagayan, Kalinga, Abra, Apayao, central and northern Ilocos Sur, Batnaes, and western Mountain provinces.

• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 1: The rest of Mountain and Ilocos Sur and Isabela, Ifugao, Zambales, Pangasinan, Benguet, La Union, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga, northern Bataan, and northern Bulacan provinces.

Rainfall totals of more than 20 cm (8 inches) are forecast in northern Cagayan (including the Babuyan Islands) and Ilocos Norte provinces through July 26-27. Lesser amounts of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are likely in Batanes, Ilocos Sur, the rest of Cagayan, Apayao, and Abra provinces, and 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) in Zambales Province and the rest of Cordillera Administrative Region and Ilocos Region. Storm surge of more than 3 meters (10 feet) is forecast in Batanes, Cagayan (including the Babuyan Islands), Ilocos Norte, and parts of Isabela and Ilocos Sur provinces; flooding in low-lying and exposed coastal areas is possible.

Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau has issued a typhoon warning for land areas across eastern and southern Taiwan and for most coastal waters. Purple torrential rain warnings (the highest level on a four-tier scale) are in effect for Hualien county, as well as red heavy rain warnings for Taitung and mountainous areas of Yilan and Pingtung counties. Orange torrential rain warnings are in place for the rest of Yilan and Pingtung counties and mountainous parts of Taichung and Natou counties, and Kaohsiung and New Taipei cities. Yellow heavy rain warnings have been issued for the rest of Kaohsiung and New Taipei cities, across Keelung and Taipei cities, and mountainous parts of Taoyuan City. Officials have also issued onshore strong wind advisories across northern, southern, and all island coastal areas.

The China Meteorological Administration has issued a red (the highest level on a four-tier scale) typhoon warning. Rainfall totals of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) are likely in coastal areas of southeastern Zhejiang July 26-27, as well as strong winds in the South China Sea. Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Disruptions are ongoing across parts of the Philippines as of July 26 following the passing of Doksuri. The storm has killed at least one person and injured two others in Calabarzon and Western Visayas regions as of the morning of July 26. Flooding and landslides are also affecting parts of the regions, and officials have estimated that more than 180,000 people have been affected by the storm across the country. Authorities have evacuated tens of thousands of people across affected regions, including more than 12,000 people in northern Cagayan Province and more than 31,000 people across Western Visayas Region. Power outages are affecting parts of Cagayan, Ilocos Sur, Benguet, La Union, Nueva Ecija, as well as Abra and Aurora provinces, as of July 26. At least 13 national roads in northern Luzon have been made impassable by flooding and landslides, and hundreds of minor roads are also likely affected.

Sea travel across northern and central Philippines is suspended; more than 11,000 people, including passengers in Bicol, Calabarzon, Eastern Visayas, Western Visayas, and Mimaropa regions, are stranded as of July 26. Airlines have canceled flights connecting Manila with Basco, Cauayan, Laoag, Masbate, San Jose, and Tuguegarao, as well as between Cebu and Baguio July 26-27 and dozens of other flights have been canceled across the country through July 28. Authorities have suspended classes in parts of northern and central Philippines as of July 26.

In Taiwan, authorities announced the suspension of all 160 ferries on 17 domestic and cross-Taiwan Strait ferries scheduled for July 27. Authorities have closed some national parks and suspended several outdoor sporting and other recreational events. Closures have been imposed on sections of provincial highways 7,8, 20, and 23 through July 28 or until weather conditions stabilize. Annual military drills have also been curtailed due to the storm. High-speed rail services are expected to run as normal on July 27.

In China, officials have called on fishing boats in Fujian Province coastal areas to return to port and the evacuation of residents in potential risk areas before July 26.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
China Meteorological Administration
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
Taiwan Central Weather Bureau