Libya: Security situation likely to remain unstable through at least late August /update 10

Event

The security situation will likely remain unstable nationwide through at least late August, primarily due to intermittent fighting and armed clashes between various rival militia groups across the country. Competing governmental institutions, as well as geopolitical rivalries, have profoundly complicated the security situation in Libya. Kidnapping incidents, political assassinations, criminal activity, and clashes between opposing militia groups are the most severe problems.

Porous borders, the absence of a cohesive governing body, and unified security forces provide an opportune environment for militant organizations, still active in the increasingly unstable Sahel region. This could enable militant groups, including the Islamic State (IS), to regain a foothold in the country. Despite being pushed out of its regional stronghold of Sirte in late 2016, IS still carries out sporadic attacks in Libya, though these are largely confined to southern and eastern regions.

Demonstrations also remain a constant feature of the security landscape. These vary in size and impact; however, they can sometimes be centrally coordinated and lead to widespread disruption, with an associated threat of demonstration-related violence.

Context

Conflict and Political Disunity
Beginning in October 2020, 75 delegates selected from a combination of Libyan social groups, nominated by the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and representatives from the House of Representatives (HoR), engaged in a series of talks to establish a political roadmap aimed at holding credible and democratic national elections. Dubbed the Libya Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF), the talks led to the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU), with Abdul Hamid Dbeibah serving as the country's transitional prime minister.

Although presidential elections were initially slated for Dec. 24, 2021, the country's High National Election Commission postponed the vote, and, to date, no serious progress has been achieved toward making elections a reality. Significant obstacles, including difficulties reaching a political arrangement among the rival political representatives, continue to impede agreement on a constitutional framework that lays out the functions of the future government.

In response to Dbeibah's decision to indefinitely postpone elections, Libya's parliament voted for a new government on March 1, 2022, despite the incumbent prime minister's rejection of the vote. Fathi Bashagha emerged as prime minister along with a new government, the Government of National Stability (GNS), consisting of three deputy prime ministers, 29 ministers, and six ministers of state.

While Dbeibah serves as the internationally recognized Libyan prime minister, the commander of the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA), Khalifa Haftar, and affiliated political figures based in eastern Libya continue to challenge Dbeibah's legitimacy. The existence of disparate, competing governmental institutions has led to increased instability in the country and has complicated the Libyan bureaucracy. Fighting could persist between various factions until a comprehensive political settlement is achieved. Heightened security, transport, and business disruptions are likely near Tripoli and its surrounding areas. The prolonged lack of a cohesive governing body and unified political leadership exacerbates Libya's existing problems – chief among them political and economic instability.

However, Libyan stakeholders are cautiously optimistic about a potential path out of the political stalemate through the establishment of elections. On March 16, 2023, the UN Security Council adopted the initiative led by UN Special Envoy to Libya, Abdoulaye Bathily, to launch a Libyan High-Level Panel for Elections (HLPE). This panel aims to facilitate the establishment of a legal framework and a roadmap for holding elections by the end of 2023. The HLPE will serve as a consultative body as the UN stated that the authority to draft election laws would lay with the 6+6 Joint Committee, a constitutional body formed by an equal number of HoR and the High Council of State (HCS) representatives. International stakeholders remain cautious as, through this committee, both governments will still have the power to stall the political resolution to the crisis if they feel it threatens their hold on power.

Security Services
There is no unified, professional security force operating in Libya. Local militias - which often have conflicting and evolving allegiances and political and territorial objectives - are generally responsible for providing security. Clashes between heavily armed rival militias occasionally occur, even in the capital, and could result in casualties and property damage.

The inability of rival political factions to reconcile has compounded the volatile security situation. Furthermore, any political compromise that materializes will likely be tenuous, partly because of the multiple foreign countries supporting Libya's competing factions. Foreign fighters backed by Turkey and Russia, for example, have remained in the country. At the same time, Turkey has also remained intransigent on calls for the withdrawal of its national forces, which it argues are legally allowed under the security agreement between Turkey and the former Government of National Accord (GNA). The lack of transparency and accountability on the distribution of oil revenues also perpetuates the status quo as each stakeholder positions itself to maximize political relevance and international support.

Militancy
Libyan forces mostly cleared IS militants from their stronghold in Sirte by late 2016. However, the group continues to conduct operations in the country; these are small-scale and, since 2019, mainly limited to southern regions. The latest attacks in June 2021 came after a period of inactivity. Several arrest and interdiction operations have also been reported against both IS and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) in the southern region, including around Obari to the west of Sabha and Qatrun and Umm Aranib, further degrading militants' operational capacity. However, IS still represents a threat in the country and can carry out unsophisticated suicide attacks at high-profile locations to maximize media coverage and armed attacks against isolated areas in the south.

Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups in Libya maintain a presence near Benghazi, Derna, and the country's southern border. The LNA remains focused on eradicating such groups from these regions and frequently conducts security operations to oust militants from these areas.

Civil Unrest
Civil unrest often occurs in Libya, especially in the form of labor strikes and protests. Demonstrations frequently occur in response to insecurity and contentious social and political issues, including foreign intervention in Libya and ongoing currency and electricity shortages. In Tripoli, most rallies tend to take place in Martyrs' Square. All protests have the potential to devolve into violence.

Infrastructure
Heavy fighting in the years following the 2011 uprising has taken a substantial toll on Libyan infrastructure. Electrical supply is frequently interrupted, and water outages are common; outages can last several hours, even in the capital. Rolling blackouts are prevalent during the summer months as power demand increases. Armed groups often disrupt planned power outages by attacking power distribution stations and forcing staff to change the scheduled power loading cycle between districts. The Western Military Command has increased security at such facilities, which may mitigate the impact of armed group activity.

Tripoli International Airport (TIP) remains closed after clashes between rival militias in 2014 destroyed most of the airport's facilities. Most flights in Libya operate out of Mitiga International Airport (MJI) in Tripoli, although airports in Misrata (MRA) and Benghazi (BEN) also operate international flights.

Advice

If in Libya, comply with the instructions of local authorities and security personnel. If possible, limit exposure to official buildings that may be targeted by armed groups, such as security checkpoints and local government offices. When exiting Libya, confirm with local contacts that border crossings and/or airports are operational and verify onward transportation before checking out of accommodations.

Plan for possible clashes and significant travel disruptions if operating in southern and southwestern Libya. If fighting intensifies, remain sheltered in a secure location, preferably indoors and away from exterior walls and windows. Prepare for heightened security, including checkpoints. Carry official identification at all times. Remain calm and nonconfrontational and comply with authorities' directions if confronted. Do not attempt to bypass security checkpoints; even an accidental breach of the security cordon near a checkpoint may prompt security forces to respond aggressively.