Mozambique: Militant threat likely to remain elevated in northern provinces in the coming months as of Aug. 7 /update 4

Event

As of Aug. 7, the militant threat in the northern provinces of Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Niassa, will likely remain elevated in the coming months. The announcement of the progressive withdrawal of foreign troops from Mozambique from December 2023 increases the risk of attacks by the Ahlu Sunnah Waljama'a (ASWJ) Islamist militant group. Militants remain capable of attacks on military and civilian targets, including mining sites. While attacks have subsided in 2023, especially in Niassa and Nampula, militant activity has remained elevated in Cabo Delgado, with clashes intensifying in the Macomia and Mocimboa da Praia districts.

Violence could resume at short notice as the region settles into its dry season (through November). Authorities will undoubtedly maintain an increased security posture in the affected areas of Cabo Delgado and may erect roadblocks or restrict access on some roads. Security-related operations could result in localized ground transport disruptions. Increased vehicle checks are also likely on roads leading to and from larger urban centers. The military presence will continue for the duration of the threat.

Context

Mozambique's northern provinces, particularly Cabo Delgado Province, have been subject to a continuous Islamist insurgency since October 2017. The attacks are linked to militants from Ansar al-Sunna, also known as Ahlu Sunnah Waljama'a (ASWJ), and appear to have been originally motivated by an international Islamist agenda. ASWJ pledged allegiance to the Islamic State (IS), which has reportedly provided weapons, funding, and training to the militants. Attacks peaked in 2022, spreading to the neighboring Nampula and Niassa provinces, and targeting military, industrial, and civilian complexes. As of August 2023, the insurgency has reportedly killed around 6,700 people and displaced 950,000 more since its inception. In the first half of 2023, however, the group’s number of reported attacks significantly decreased. Starting in March after Cyclone Freddy hit northern Mozambique twice, which probably forced the militants to halt their activities, and following the month of Ramadan in April, attacks have been limited to Cabo Delgado. This lull in violence has enabled some 300,000 displaced people to return to northern Mozambique.

The decline in attacks is largely attributable to the involvement of foreign troops provided by Mozambique’s neighbors. The Mozambican armed forces (FADM) had proven unsuccessful in preventing the growth of militant cells, lacking numbers and coordination to retain control of the area. The support of local militias in late 2022 sparked severe disagreements between the militias and armed forces, and increased tensions within the FADM. Foreign assistance began with the deployment of some 1,900 soldiers from the Southern African Development Community (SADC)’s Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) in July 2021, and an additional 2,800 soldiers from the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) in December 2022. Combined, the SAMIM, RDF, and FADM have been able to secure major highways and ports and force militants to retreat further into the forests. However, in July 2023, though SAMIM was extended for another year, the SADC also announced a progressive drawback of SAMIM troops from December 2023 before a definitive pullout by July 2024. Without their assistance, the Mozambique Defence Armed Forces (FADM) remains ill-equipped, highly unprepared, and will likely not be able to offer the same level of security as it did with its partners.

As of mid-2023, ASWJ remains a severe threat to foreigners and Mozambicans. Recent developments suggest that the insurgency could be socio-economically motivated, with ASWJ claiming to defend the local rural population against the Mozambique Defense Armed Forces (FADM) and their allies in a large-scale recruitment campaign dubbed "hearts and minds" amongst rural populations. It is likely linked to Cabo Delgado's perceived "resource curse", whereby despite abundant natural fossil resources, the local population remains impoverished and does not reap the benefits of their exploitation. And reports of FADM’s and their allies’ repeated human rights abuses against locals have also likely aided ASWJ’s messaging and helped the militant group win greater support among local populations. Through this support, insurgents have proven capable of gaining and retaining control of small villages. Militants operate in relatively autonomous cells, and their self-reliance contributes to the difficulty the government has had in tracking down and identifying their support networks. The insurgency could, therefore, also be an attempt at seizing control of valuable mines and drilling sites.

This has raised concerns that the violence could threaten economically significant ore, oil, and gas mining compounds in Cabo Delgado. Mozambique successfully exported its first shipment of liquified natural gas out of Cabo Delgado in November 2022, and it is possible that further shipments could leave Cabo Delgado from the northern port of Palma as early as 2023 should its reconstruction proceed uninterrupted. The discovery of additional graphite and gemstone deposits, such as rubies and tourmalines, will likely increase the appeal for foreign investors, and increase potential targets. These have not been greatly threatened by the insurgency since 2021: ASWJ typically attacks local militias, security forces, and remote towns through road ambushes and armed assaults. However, while ASWJ's modus operandi does not typically threaten foreign nationals, the risk of attacks and kidnappings is increasing due to the upsurge in natural resource exploitation and the increased presence of foreigners in the province. Assaults against mining operations have already occurred: the latest attack threatening foreigners occurred in February 2023 in the village of Nairoto in Cado Delgado Province, prompting the precautionary evacuation of personnel from the nearby mining camp of Nairoto Resources Limitada.

Various foreign governments are maintaining travel advisories against travel to Cabo Delgado and restricting travel in certain areas of Niassa and Nampula.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to Cabo Delgado until government forces manage to stabilize the security landscape. Proceed with extreme caution when traveling in the Niassa and Nampula provinces. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Liaise with trusted security partners for further information. Travel in convoy after a full security review of the route and avoid all travel after dark. Review and update contingency plans. Carry personal identification documents. Heed all security personnel instructions.