Niger: Coup leaders announce three-year transition plan, maintain nationwide closure of airspace as of Aug. 25 /update 10

Event

General Tiania, leader of the ruling National Council for the Protection of the Country (Conseil national pour la sauvegarde de la patrie, CNSP), announced on Aug. 20 that he was planning a three-year transition towards democratic rule. The General also announced he would submit a detailed proposal within 30 days. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has rejected the plan, and reiterated its demand that the country's junta step down and release and reappoint deposed President Mohamed Bazoum. On Aug. 10, ECOWAS announced it was activating its "standby force" ahead of a possible military intervention; the regional bloc's next steps remain unclear.

The closure of Niger's airspace to all aircraft until further notice was announced on Aug. 6, citing the threat of military intervention from ECOWAS. As of Aug. 25, commercial aviation carriers, such as Air Burkina (2J) and Air Algerie (AH), are reportedly servicing Niger with limited flights via exceptional case authorization by local authorities. Several countries had previously evacuated a number of their nationals from the country, including France, the US, the UK, Italy, and Spain.

Despite coup leaders announcing the reopening of land and air borders with Algeria, Burkina Faso, Libya, Mali, and Chad from Aug. 1, the borders with Benin and Nigeria remain officially closed as of Aug. 25. This has reportedly left about 7,000 migrants stranded in Niger.

ECOWAS continues to implement a no-fly zone, the closure of borders with Niger, and the suspension of commercial and financial transactions with the country. Nigeria has cut its electricity supply to Niger, leading to power outages in parts of the country, including Niamey. On Aug. 22, the African Union (AU) announced Niger's suspension from the bloc until civilian rule was restored.

Coup-related demonstrations have regularly occurred since July 26, and further events are likely in Niamey and elsewhere. Gatherings are particularly likely near prominent government buildings, Western embassies, and public squares, including the French Embassy, Presidential Palace, Place de la Concertation in front of the National Assembly, and President Bazoum's party headquarters. Clashes are likely if pro- and anti-CNSP groups demonstrate in proximity to one another or if protesters engage in acts of public violence or ignore official orders to disperse.

Security will likely remain especially tight in Niamey, other major cities, and along the country's border crossings over the coming weeks. Security measures may include roadblocks, checkpoints, and searches of vehicles and pedestrians. Coup leaders could implement further restrictions, including restricting telecommunications. Clashes between supporters of Bazoum and military leaders could occur with little-to-no warning; a counter-coup attempt by soldiers loyal to Bazoum and his administration remains possible. There have been no reported clashes involving armed forces as of Aug. 25. Shortages of basic commodities are likely if the border closures persist.

Context

The coup took place early July 26, when members of the Presidential Guard sequestered President Bazoum within the Presidential Palace. Bazoum was allegedly about to dismiss General Abdourahmane Tchiani after the latter had served two presidential administrations. A group of soldiers announced overnight July 26-27 that they had ended Niger's current regime and suspended the country's constitution. Tchiani justified the removal of Bazoum by citing several issues, including prevailing insecurity and the state of the economy.

There have been frequent pro-coup demonstrations following July 26, particularly in Niamey, during which demonstrators have chanted anti-French slogans and waved Russian flags. There has been no significant violence targeting French assets or personnel to date.

Advice

Persons planning to travel to Niger should defer all travel until the situation stabilizes. Those planning to leave Niger should contact their home consulate to confirm the feasibility of the exit. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Niger. Heed official directives, including any curfew orders. Avoid government buildings, security installations, large concentrations of police and soldiers, and any demonstrations that materialize. Remain courteous and cooperative if approached and questioned by security personnel. Reconfirm the status of roads before leaving accommodations. Plan for possible disruptions to telecommunications networks. Refrain from taking photographs in public spaces due to heightened tensions nationwide. Stockpile essential items, including food, when possible. Maintain contact with diplomatic missions.