Pacific Ocean: Hurricane Hilary tracking north-northwestward off the Baja California Peninsula, Mexico, as of early Aug. 19 /update 2

Event

Hurricane Hilary is maintaining Category 4 hurricane strength and is tracking north-northwestward in the eastern North Pacific Ocean off the southwest coast of the Baja California Peninsula, Mexico, early Aug. 19. As of 03:00 MDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 415 km (260 miles) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur State.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken into a Category 3 and then Category 2 hurricane as it continues to track north-northwestward off the west coast of Baja California Sur Aug. 19, before passing close to or over Cedros Island early Aug, 20. The system is forecast to weaken further before making landfall as either a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm near San Quintin in Baja California State late morning Aug. 20. After making landfall, Hilary is forecast to continue to weaken as it tracks north-northwestward across western and northern Baja California State and then into southern Califronia late Aug. 20. The system is then expected to weaken into a tropical depression as it tracks generally northward across southern California and Nevada early Aug. 21, before dissipating over southeastern Oregon. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming hours.

As of early Aug. 19, authorities have issued the following coastal watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: The Baja California Peninsula from Punta Abreojos to north to Cabo San Quintin

• Hurricane Watch: The Baja California Peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada.

• Tropical Storm Warning: The entire east coast of the Baja California Peninsula; from Punta Abreojos southward and from Cabo San Quintin northward to the California/Mexico border on the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula; mainland Mexico north of Guaymas, Sonora State; from the California/Mexico border north to Point Mugu; and Catalina Island.

• Tropical Storm Watch: Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas in Sonora State.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming hours and days.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area late Aug. 19-early Aug. 20 and are possible in the watch area Aug. 20. Tropical-storm-force winds are occurring within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area and will spread northward Aug. 19-20. Tropical storm conditions are also possible within the tropical storm watch area Aug. 19 and are expected in southern California Aug. 20. Rainfall totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches), with localized maximums of up to 25 cm (10 inches), are forecast across parts of the Baja California Peninsula through late Aug. 20. Similar rainfall amounts are expected in parts of southwestern US through Aug. 21 and totals of 2.5-7.5 (1-3 inches) are forecast across other parts of the western US. Storm surge could produce coastal flooding along the western Baja California Peninsula where the storm approaches the coast. Large swells generated by Hilary, which are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, are forecast across parts of the southwest coast of Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula, and southern California over the coming days. Tornadoes associated with the storm system are possible in the lower Colorado River Valley, Mojave Desert, and Imperial Valley regions Aug. 20.

As of early Aug. 19, authorities have opened 113 emergency shelters in Baja California Sur State and 80 in Baja California State ahead of the approach of the storm. Around 90 people have been evacuated from at-risk areas between Puerto Alcatraz and Cancun in Baja California Sur. The governor of Baja California State has advised citizens to shelter in place during the passage of the storm. One fatality has been reported in the El Quemadito community in Sinaloa State due to flooding following heavy rainfall associated with the passing of Hilary. Several sports events have been canceled in parts of southern California over the weekend due to the anticipated severe weather brought by the storm.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
Mexico National Meteorological Service (SMN)