Libya: Casualty figures rise as response operations continue following severe weather across northeastern regions as of Sept. 18 /update 5

Event

Response operations continue across parts of northeastern Libya, and additional damage and casualties were reported following severe weather. A storm system named Storm Daniel struck the region Sept. 9-11, bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall that triggered widespread flooding and damage. Conflicting reports of casualties have emerged. As of Sept. 18, different authorities on the ground have reported between 3,958 and 11,300 fatalities and at least 9,000 injured. Tens of thousands of others are still missing. Reports indicate that the death toll could reach 20,000. More than 40,000 people have been displaced across the affected region.

The city of Derna has been the worst affected area. Dams in the Derna Valley failed due to the amount of rainfall, inundating several neighborhoods in Derna and triggering mudslides. Severe damage has been caused to many parts of the city; the full impact of the storm is likely to take some time to be confirmed as response operations continue, and the death toll is likely to continue to rise in the coming hours and days. Mobile communication outages have been reported in Derna, and other utility disruptions are likely. Floodwaters have also reportedly shifted landmines and other ordnance left over from years of conflict, posing additional risk to the population attempting to evacuate the city. A state of emergency has been declared in Derna.

Other affected areas include the northeastern coastal cities of Al Bayda, Al Marj, Benghazi, and Soussa. Several roads and homes have been damaged across the region. Authorities imposed a curfew in parts of eastern Libya and closed schools and shops. The oil ports of Ras Lanuf, Zueitina, Brega, and Es Sidra have been closed since Sept. 9. Authorities have declared three days of national mourning from Sept. 11 due to the weather-related disaster.

Security Impact

Years of civil war in Libya and the absence of a central government have left the country vulnerable to natural disasters. The political stalemate between the western-based Government of National Unity, led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, and the eastern-based Government of National Stability, backed by the House of Representatives (HoR) and the Libyan National Army, led by Khalifa Haftar, remains a factor of instability. It has further complicated the emergency response to the deadly floods in eastern Libya. According to the United Nations, most deaths could have been avoided if authorities had implemented the required warning systems and evacuated the exposed population instead of enforcing a curfew.

Additionally, while European and Middle Eastern countries have pledged relief packages and sent personnel to the affected area, aid convoys have struggled to reach Derna and other eastern cities due to destroyed roads. On Sept. 17, four Greek aid workers were killed in a road collision accident. The GNU is also the recognized government for the Libyan Central Bank, in charge of distributing funds to departments and cities nationwide. Therefore, distributing aid and recovery funds will be challenging as tensions between the GNU and GNS remain. However, reports indicate that both governments have been cooperating, and military personnel from western Libya (including the 444 Brigade) have been deployed to the area to provide emergency services.

Finally, rival armed militias are still operating in the affected area, putting the population at risk. Violence and crime will likely rise in the short term as smuggling networks are implemented instead of public emergency services. The absence of reliable infrastructure and security services will remain challenging as search and rescue operations continue.

Health Impact

Flooding could heighten the threat of disease outbreaks. Backflow from drains mixed with floodwaters can become trapped in open areas when inundations recede. These stagnant pools often become a breeding ground for mosquitoes and bacteria, increasing the incidence of insect- and water-borne diseases. Exposure to contaminated water from inundated industrial sites, sewer systems, and septic tanks also poses a significant health threat.

Advice

Exercise caution if operating in the affected area. Monitor local media for updated emergency and weather information. Seek updated information on weather and road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas affected by severe weather. Plan accordingly for potential delivery delays if routing shipments by truck through the affected area. Reconfirm all transport arrangements.

Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming days. Review contingency plans and be prepared to move quickly to shelters if evacuation orders are issued. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.