Niger: Heightened security likely nationwide through at least late September following July 26 coup /update 12

Event

Military authorities will likely maintain a heightened security posture across Niger through at least late September following the country's July 26 coup d'etat. Heightened security is particularly likely in major cities, including Niamey, and along the country's borders with Benin and Nigeria, both of which are members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and have intimated their willingness to militarily intervene in Niger to restore the rule of deposed President Mohamed Bazoum. Unconfirmed reports indicate that Niger's junta has deployed military personnel along the country's border with Benin in the vicinity of the Gaya-Malanville border crossing to defend against possible cross-border military action. The move comes after the coup leaders accused France overnight Sept. 9-10 of deploying troops in "several ECOWAS countries" in preparation for a military intervention in Niger in cooperation with the regional bloc. Also, in the Sept. 9-10 statement, the junta again called for French forces to leave the country; French President Emmanuel Macron has refused to withdraw French troops on the junta's request, maintaining that they lack the legitimacy to issue such an order.

Protesters, numbering in the hundreds to the tens of thousands, have held frequent demonstrations in recent days outside the French military base (Airbase 101) in Niamey, located on the northwest side of Diori Hamani International Airport (NIM). The purpose of the demonstrations has been to demand the departure of French military forces from the country. Nigerien troops have also reportedly deployed reinforcements to the area to monitor the activities of military personnel at the French base. Authorities will almost certainly maintain heightened security measures in the area over the short term, particularly in the vicinity of the Escadrille roundabout, where the protesters often gather.

Authorities may set up security checkpoints and roadblocks as well as conduct patrols and searches of vehicles and pedestrians in areas subject to a heightened security presence. Increased security may cause disruptions to business and air and road transport. The coup leaders could implement additional restrictions, including telecommunications cuts, and suspend existing political and civil liberties on short notice. Clashes between rival supporters of the coup leaders and Bazoum could occur, especially in any areas where pro-junta demonstrations and pro-Bazoum counterdemonstrations materialize. While unlikely, soldiers loyal to Bazoum and his administration may attempt to stage a counter-coup d'etat over the coming months; there have been no reported clashes involving armed forces since the coup.

Context

ECOWAS has maintained a no-fly zone over Niger, kept Benin's and Nigeria's borders with the country closed, and upheld the suspension of commercial and financial transactions with the country as of Sept. 12. The closure of Benin's and Nigeria's borders with Niger has notably disrupted the provision of humanitarian aid and the cross-border transport of goods. Additionally, Nigeria has cut its electricity supply to Niger, leading to power outages in parts of the country, including Niamey.

General Abdourahmane Tchiani, leader of the ruling National Council for the Protection of the Country (Conseil national pour la sauvegarde de la patrie, CNSP), proposed a three-year transition period toward democratic rule on Aug. 19. Tchiani also asserted during his Aug. 19 announcement that the principles underpinning the transition plan would be settled within 30 days. ECOWAS rejected the idea and reiterated its demand that the country's junta step down and release and reappoint deposed President Bazoum. The junta leader's proposal and ECOWAS' subsequent rebuff of the plan came after the regional bloc announced on Aug. 10 that it was activating its "standby force" ahead of a possible military intervention. Negotiations between the junta and ECOWAS to find a diplomatic solution to the situation were continuing as of early September.

The coup took place early July 26, when members of the Presidential Guard sequestered President Bazoum within the Presidential Palace. Bazoum was allegedly about to dismiss Tchiani after the latter had served two presidential administrations. Tchiani justified the removal of Bazoum by citing several issues, including prevailing insecurity and the state of the economy.

Advice

Persons planning to travel to Niger should consider deferring nonessential travel until the situation stabilizes. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in the country. Heed official directives, including any curfew orders. Avoid government buildings, security installations, large concentrations of police and soldiers, and any demonstrations that materialize. Remain courteous and cooperative if approached and questioned by security personnel. Reconfirm the status of roads before leaving accommodations. Plan for possible disruptions to telecommunications networks. Refrain from taking photographs in public spaces due to heightened tensions nationwide. Maintain contact with diplomatic missions.