11 Sep 2023 | 04:06 AM UTC
North Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Lee tracking northwestward north of the Leeward Islands as of late Sept. 10 /update 5
Hurricane Lee tracking northwestward in the North Atlantic Ocean late Sept. 10. Impacts likely in the northern Caribbean through Sept. 11.
Event
Hurricane Lee has weakened into a Category 3 hurricane and is tracking west-northwestward in the North Atlantic Ocean late Sept. 10. As of 23:00 AST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 500 km (310 miles) north of the northern Leeward Islands.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane by early Sept. 11 as it tracks generally northwestward across the Sargasso Sea Region of the North Atlantic Ocean through early Sept. 12, passing well north of the northern Leeward Islands. Although the center of the system will likely pass more than 400 km (249 miles) northwest of Anguilla and Antigua and Barbuda, due to its strength, impacts will likely be felt in the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and parts of Hispaniola during its passage. Lee is then expected to weaken into a Category 2 hurricane as it slowly turns to track north-northwestwards and passes well northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands through late Sept. 13, likely bringing further impacts to the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas. The storm is likely to weaken into a Category 1 hurricane as it tracks generally northward through late Sept. 15, passing west of Bermuda late Sept. 14. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.
As of late Sept. 10, no coastal warnings or watches are in effect for the storm system. Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.
Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, the British and US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda; these swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents have begun to reach portions of the Southeast US coast and are likely to worsen and spread northwards across most of the US East Coast over the coming days.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
