01 Sep 2023 | 09:38 AM UTC
North Atlantic: Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia moving east-southeastward over North Atlantic Ocean early Sept. 1 /update 7
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia tracking east-southeast over North Atlantic Ocean early Sept. 1. Close approach to Bermuda late Sept. 2.
Event
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia is tracking east-southeast over the North Atlantic Ocean early Sept. 1, following landfall over Florida's Big Bend, US, early Aug. 30. As of 05:00 EDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 470 km (290 miles) west of Bermuda.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken slightly as it tracks southeastward through early Sept. 2 before turning to track northeastward and make a close approach to Bermuda the afternoon of Sept. 2, passing southeast of the island. Idalia is forecast to strengthen slightly while tracking northeastward through early Sept. 5 before turning to track northwestward towards Nova Scotia Province, Canada early Sept. 6. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.
As of early Sept. 1, authorities have issued the following coastal watches and warnings:
Tropical Storm Watch: Bermuda
Authorities will likely issue new warnings and update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming hours and days.
The system is forecast to produce rainfall of 7.5-12.5 cm (3-5 inches) across Bermuda through Sept. 3. Flash and urban flooding are likely. Swells, which are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, are likely to affect the southeastern US coast and Bermuda over the coming days.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
