Sudan: Violence likely to persist nationwide through at least mid-October amid warring parties' threats to form transitional administrations /update 41

Event

Violence and heightened security will likely persist in Sudan at least through mid-October amid threats by the warring parties to establish caretaker governments in their respective areas of control in the country. On Sept. 17, Sudanese Vice President Malik Agar announced a plan to establish a new administration in Port Sudan by the end of September as a strategy to resolve the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). In response, the head of the RSF militias, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo warned that such a move would divide the country and threatened to establish a civilian authority in areas under his control with Khartoum as the capital.

The ongoing conflict has been escalating in Khartoum, the neighboring city of Omdurman, South Kordofan State, and the Darfur region since the expiration of the June 17 ceasefire agreement; rising intercommunal violence has also contributed to the deterioration of the security situation in Darfur. Airstrikes, explosions, and heavy machinegun fire occur regularly in several locations across the Sudanese capital, including in the vicinity of Khartoum International Airport (KRT). Widespread telecommunication service disruptions have occurred nationwide, with supplies of food, water, medicine, and fuel remaining limited. As of Sept. 20, clashes have left at least 5,000 people dead and around 12,100 others wounded. Furthermore, over 4.2 million people have been internally displaced, with more than 1.1 million having fled the country since the violence erupted.

Travel disruptions
Sudanese officials reopened airspace in the country's east on Aug. 15. However, Chad's land border with Sudan remains closed until further notice due to the violence. No other neighboring countries have formally taken similar measures, although land borders are most likely subject to heightened surveillance.

Khartoum
Large areas of the nation's capital remain contested, including in the city center near KRT, the Presidential Palace, Khartoum North, the twin city of Omdurman, and along some of the Nile bridges. The SAF reportedly targets RSF positions with occasional airstrikes. It is unclear which side retains control of critical infrastructure and military installations. The continued fighting between the RSF and SAF has caused power outages and water shortages in several areas. Most hospitals are closed or operating at reduced capacity due to damage and lack of medicine.

Criminal incidents persist in the Khartoum area despite authorities deploying additional police to combat looting, home invasions, assaults, and carjackings. Artillery fire and criminal elements have also targeted aid workers, their facilities, and civilians.

Elsewhere
Clashes have occurred nationwide, including in El Obeid, Ad-Damazin, El Fasher, Geneina, El Obeid, Merowe, Nyala, and Port Sudan. The security situation has significantly deteriorated in West Darfur, where there are growing concerns over a possible escalation in communal tensions due to the security vacuum. Heavy clashes have reportedly occurred between rival tribes in Geneina and, more recently, in Nyala and Zalingei, resulting in an unspecified number of civilian casualties. It remains unclear whether or not SAF and RSF forces have any involvement in the violence. While the status of the previously active states of emergency in Al-Gadarif, South Kordofan, West Darfur, and Red Sea State is not immediately clear, authorities in North Kordofan have imposed a 19:00-05:00 curfew that will remain in effect until further notice.

Rival security forces will almost certainly remain deployed nationwide, particularly around routes near military bases, government buildings, telecommunications centers, and strategic transport nodes. Further state-of-emergency declarations are likely. Disruptions to road travel, airports, border crossings, internet and mobile phone services, and access to essential goods are probable. Local authorities may also impose curfews.

Context

While it remains to be seen whether the two opposing sides will make good on their recent threats, the formation of separate governing bodies within each party's zone of control would likely deteriorate the security situation across Sudan and jeopardize the regional and international efforts to bring about a peaceful settlement.

Clashes began April 15 following persistent tensions between the RSF and SAF. Each side blames the other of initiating the violence. The government has labeled the RSF a "rebel" force. The recent fighting between the SAF and RSF is a continuation of a years-long power struggle between Sudan's de facto ruler General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the leader of the RSF, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, widely known as Hemedti. The pair have quarreled over several issues, including plans to integrate the RSF into the SAF, effectively resulting in Hemedti losing control over the former.

Tensions between the two leaders worsened after the military and civilian opposition groups signed a deal to end the impasse between security and political elites in December. Under the signed framework, the formation of a transitional civilian government was scheduled in early April; however, several issues hindered the deal's implementation, including the abovementioned disagreement between al-Burhan and Hemedti over the integration of the RSF into the military.

The RSF mainly evolved out of the Janjaweed militias, which former President Omar Bashir had organized to put down an uprising in Darfur in 2003. The RSF is separate from the Sudanese regular military and has been competing for power and resources for years. In 2013, Bashir reshaped the group into a paramilitary organization by giving its leaders military ranks.

Advice

Defer travel until the situation stabilizes. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Avoid concentrations of security personnel. Liaise with trusted contacts for further information. Reconfirm road status if ground travel is unavoidable. Carry personal identification documents at all times. Conserve battery power on essential equipment, such as mobile phones. Conserve basic supplies, including food and water.

Resources

French Embassy in Sudan
US Embassy in Sudan
UK Foreign Travel Advice
Australian Government (Smartraveller)
Government of Canada - Sudan Travel Advice
German Embassy in Sudan
Embassy of Japan in Sudan