Arabian Sea: Severe Cyclonic Storm Tej tracking west-northwestward towards Yemen as of Oct. 21 /update 1

Event

Severe Cyclonic Storm Tej is tracking west-northwestward in the Arabian Sea Oct. 21. As of 15:00 AST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 785 km (488 miles) south-southeast of Salalah, Oman.

Forecast models indicate that the system will strengthen rapidly into an extremely severe cyclonic storm as it tracks northwestward in the Arabian Sea Oct. 20-22 and passes close to Yemen's Socotra Island Oct. 22. Tej is then expected to weaken into a cyclonic storm as it continues to track northwestward Oct. 23-24 before making landfall over Al-Mahrah Governorate in southeastern Yemen, close to the border with Oman, during the afternoon Oct. 24. The system is expected to weaken into a depression as it tracks northwestward across Al-Mahrah Governorate Oct. 25. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and changes may occur over the coming hours and days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast adverse weather conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Oman Directorate General of Meteorology
Yemen Meteorological Services