27 Oct 2023 | 12:01 AM UTC
MENA: Pro-Palestinian rallies likely across region Oct. 27, additional protests possible through at least late October /update 7
Pro-Palestinian rallies likely across Middle East and North Africa region Oct. 27; further protests possible through at least late October.
Pro-Palestinian rallies are likely across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region on Oct. 27 amid a call from Hamas for protests across the Muslim world on Oct. 27 and Oct. 29 to demand the opening of the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip and an end to the "war on Gaza." Additional pro-Palestinian rallies are possible in locations across the MENA region through at least late October. The following demonstrations are among those planned on Oct. 27:
Iraq: Demonstrators plan to rally in front of the Saudi Embassy in Baghdad. Protests are also likely in governorate capitals nationwide.
Jordan: Demonstrators plan to gather in the courtyards of the Grand Husseini Mosque in Amman. Additional protests are possible near the Israeli, US, and French embassies.
Kuwait: The Kuwaiti Progressive Movement has called for a demonstration at Al-Erada Square, Kuwait City, from 19:00. The protest will likely be peaceful and well attended.
Tunisia: The People Victory bloc has called for demonstrations across the country. Demonstrations are particularly possible in Tunis near Avenue Habib Bourguiba, the Municipal Theatre, and the US Embassy.
Conflict developments will continue to shape protest activity across the region, and the frequency and scale of demonstrations will probably spike following major escalations in conflict violence and in the event of a major Israeli ground assault within the Gaza Strip. While many demonstrations will almost certainly exhibit a strong anti-Israeli and anti-Western sentiment, significant violence is unlikely at most rallies.
Related demonstrations are likely to materialize in the following areas:
Near diplomatic missions and offices, particularly those of Israel, the Palestinian Authority, and the US and other Western nations.
In Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, near their respective borders with Israel.
Downtown areas, public squares, major government buildings, universities, and mosques.
Officials will almost certainly deploy a heightened security presence in areas that are subject to protest activity to monitor gatherings and manage crowds. Clashes between protesters and security forces are possible. Security personnel in Egypt, Jordan, and possibly Lebanon will likely seek to prevent demonstrators from marching toward their respective borders with Israel; confrontations are possible at any such events that materialize. Road transport disruptions are likely near all demonstrations. Businesses could also close in response to protests. Counterprotests are highly unlikely.
Attacks/Violent Incidents
An elevated threat of violence as well as increased security measures are likely near Jewish, Israeli, and overtly Western sites. Individuals or small groups could attempt to conduct attacks against these sites or individuals associated with them. Assailants could act on behalf of militant groups or alone. Additional attacks, including gun, knife, vehicle-ramming, or bomb attacks, cannot be ruled out.
Monitor developments closely. Exercise heightened caution near all likely protest sites and on likely protest days. Avoid all demonstrations as a precaution. Heed the instructions of officials. Plan for localized road transport delays near protest sites. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Western and Israeli nationals should maintain a low public profile. Consider avoiding sensitive topics of conversation, particularly with persons unknown to you.
The Gaza-based Hamas militant group launched a surprise land, sea, and air assault against Israel early Oct. 7. Hamas has called the operation "Al-Aqsa Flood." It is the largest and most coordinated attack against Israel in years. The assault coincided with the Jewish religious holiday Simchat Torah and occurred, perhaps not coincidentally, 50 years and a day after the beginning of the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Allies of Israel, including states with no official relations, such as Saudi Arabia, have condemned the attack, while supporters of Hamas, including Iran and Hizballah, have welcomed it. Israel, in turn, has launched a series of strikes on Hamas personnel and sites in Gaza. The developments have sparked demonstrations around the world.
