27 Oct 2023 | 08:26 PM UTC
Myanmar: Armed clashes between military and anti-regime groups likely to persist nationwide through at least late November /update 8
Armed clashes between military and anti-regime groups in Myanmar likely through at least late November. Disruptions likely.
The instability that arose following Myanmar's February 2021 military coup will likely continue to impact the country through at least late November. Fighting between military (Tatmadaw) troops and the National Unity Government's (NUG) People's Defense Force (PDF), as well as several ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), continues. Pro-democracy fighters have also carried out bombings and targeted killings across several urban centers. Further security-related disruptions will likely persist over the coming months as general elections are slated to occur sometime in 2023. Utility outages can occur on short notice.
Armed Clashes
Tatmadaw troops continue to clash with various EAOs and PDF units in several parts of Myanmar. Fighting has remained the most intense in the country's eastern and northern areas, particularly in the following locations:
Bago Region: Kyaukkyi and Mone townships.
Chin State: Falam, Hakha, Kanpetlet, Matupi, Mindat, and Paletwa townships.
Kachin State: Hpakant, Mohnyin, Momauk, and Shweku townships.
Kayah State: Bawlake, Demoso, Hpasawng, Hpruso, Loikaw, Maese, and Shadow townships.
Kayin State: Kawkareik and Myawaddy townships.
Magway Region: Magway, Myaing, Pakokku, Pauk, Taungdwingyi, and Yesagyo townships.
Mon State: Kyaikto, Thaton, and Ye townships.
Rakhine State: Northern regions, including Buthidaung, Kyauktaw, Maungdaw, Minbya, Ponnagyun, and Rathedaung townships.
Sagaing Region: Indaw, Kale, Khin-u, Monywa, Myin-mu, Chaung-U, Pale, Salingyi, Shwebo, and Yinmabin townships.
Shan State: Kokang Self-Administered Zone, Kutkai, Kyaukme, Lashio, Mabein, Muse, Namhkam, and Pekon townships.
Tanintharyi Region: Palaw and Thayetchaung townships.
PDF command structures and training have improved, and PDF fighters often attack pro-regime forces and installations. The military often responds to PDF attacks with artillery and airstrikes to target the armed group's members or villages thought to shelter the fighters. Junta authorities also provide funding and equipment to militias to combat PDF units and other anti-regime groups. Clashes have displaced tens of thousands of residents in the affected areas. Authorities will almost certainly maintain heightened security, including checkpoints and road closures, in areas where fighting occurs. Violence will also likely impact transport, especially along roads connecting townships. Authorities may cut internet and telecommunication services in areas where fighting has intensified. Officials may also impose or tighten curfews on short notice in areas that experience an increase in armed clashes.
Anti-regime groups have staged bombings and assassinations of junta members or people considered to support the Tatmadaw; they have also sabotaged military and other government facilities in various urban areas, including Yangon, Bago, and Mandalay. Both sides have either deliberately and/or inadvertently targeted critical infrastructure sites. Additionally, some activists have targeted individuals, organizations, and facilities owned by foreign nationals from China and other countries that allegedly support the Tatmadaw. While some explosions in urban areas have caused collateral damage and civilian casualties, most attacks are small-scale and inflict limited injuries and property damage. The blasts will likely continue across Myanmar, possibly prompting authorities to impose heightened security measures and resulting in localized disruptions at the incident sites.
Civil Unrest
Pro-democracy activists continue to hold sporadic demonstrations against the Tatmadaw in major urban centers, such as Yangon and Mandalay. Internet service restrictions have repeatedly delayed the reporting of related rallies. Protest activity often spikes over holiday periods and on other significant dates, such as scheduled court hearings involving cases against National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders. Rallies will likely continue to occur across the country, especially near government buildings, monuments, and public squares. Military and police personnel may use force, including water cannons, tear gas, rubber bullets, and/or live ammunition, to disperse demonstrators; reports indicate regime forces have also previously arrested non-violent demonstrators since February 2021. Activists often block roadways near demonstration sites to limit the mobility of military personnel.
Disruptions
Utility disruptions and damage to infrastructure have been reported nationwide. Civilians and militant groups opposed to the Tatmadaw may target telecommunications infrastructure, potentially causing localized disruptions. Power outages have occurred in several cities, including Yangon. Electricity disruptions can result in the temporary unavailability of essential services, such as ATMs, petrol stations, and internet and mobile data, as well as severe commercial and transport disruptions. Additionally, armed clashes near border checkpoints, especially near Thailand, may result in temporary shipping and transport-related disruptions.
Exercise extreme caution if operating in Myanmar. Heed all official security instructions. Register and maintain contact with your diplomatic mission. Purchase essential items and ensure several days' supply when possible. Collect essential items - including identification and any important legal and travel documents - in a "go-bag" that can be easily accessed. Monitor local developments closely. If a demonstration or fighting occurs nearby, immediately leave the area, seek shelter at a safe, nongovernmental building, and stay away from windows.
During the February 2021 coup, military personnel detained several senior members of the ruling NLD party, including Aung San Suu Kyi and then-President Win Myint, on charges of election fraud. Little evidence was produced to support the charges, and the Union Election Commission has denied the allegations; international observers have also rejected such claims. Aung San Suu Kyi has received several prison sentences on various charges, including corruption and violating COVID-19-related restrictions; pro-democracy activists assert that the accusations are politically motivated.
In late January 2023, the regime implemented the new Political Parties Registration Law, which requires political parties to register or risk dissolution. Critics argue that the new legislation will catalyze the dissolution of several political parties in favor of the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). The first general election following the coup was initially slated to occur by August 2023. In March 2023, the regime announced plans to delay the election. That same month, the United Election Mission dissolved the NLD. The latest extension of the state of emergency comes after Thai Foreign Minister Don Pramudwinai met with Aung San Suu Kyi in Myanmar in July. Since Aug. 1, the National Defense and Security Council has extended the existing state of emergency in effect across Myanmar for a six-month period. The decision marks a fourth consecutive extension of the state of emergency - which was slated to expire on July 31 - since the February 2021 military coup. The move will likely postpone the next general election, which the current constitution stipulates is required to occur within six months after a state of emergency is lifted.
Several Western countries, including Canada and the US, have imposed targeted sanctions against regime-affiliated officials and entities in response to the coup. The US Department of State has advised against nonessential travel to the country due to civil unrest and armed conflict. Additionally, various international organizations, such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), continue to call for cooperation and an end to the violence; however, there is little likelihood of progress in the immediate term.
