North Atlantic: Tropical Storm Philippe tracking west-northwestward in the North Atlantic Ocean northwest of Antigua and Barbuda as of late Oct. 2 /update 1

Event

Tropical Storm Philippe is tracking west-northwestward in the North Atlantic Ocean northwest of Antigua and Barbuda late Oct. 2. As of 23:00 AST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 110 km (70 miles) east-southeast of Saint Martin.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will maintain its strength as it tracks generally northwestward, passing just northeast of Anguilla early Oct. 3 before tracking generally north-northwestwards away from the Leeward Islands while strengthening but remaining a tropical storm through Oct. 5. Philippe is forecast to pass east of Bermuda late Oct. 6 before tracking north-northeastwards away from the island through Oct. 7. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.

As of late Oct. 2, authorities have issued tropical storm warnings for Antigua and Barbuda. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the warning area. Strong gusty winds are also likely elsewhere in the Leeward Islands through Oct. 3. Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Rainfall totals of up to 20 cm (8 inches) is likely from Barbuda southward to Dominica and up to 13 cm (5 inches) over the rest of the Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands through early Oct. 4. The rainfall is likely to result in scattered flash flooding.

Swells generated by Philippe are forecast to affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the coming days; these are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Leeward Islands Air Transport (LI) canceled five flights across the Leeward Islands Oct. 2. Further flight cancellations are possible as the weather deteriorates. Antigua and Barbuda closed schools Oct. 3 and several public educational institutions are being used as shelters.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center