Philippine Sea: Typhoon Koinu tracking toward southern Taiwan, Oct. 4 /update 3

Event

Typhoon Koinu (known in the Philippines as Jenny) is tracking westward in the Philippine Sea late Oct. 4. As of 23:00 CST, the system's center of circulation is approximately 350 km (220 miles) south of Taipei, Taiwan.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken slightly as it tracks westward across the Philippine Sea and make landfall as a typhoon over far southern Taiwan early Oct. 5. Koinu is forecast to weaken further into a tropical storm as it continues westward across the Taiwan Strait towards Guangdong Province, China, through Oct. 7 before making a close approach to the province early Oct. 8-9. Uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days

Officials in Taiwan have issued various wind, rain, and rough surf warnings. The most severe impact is forecast along the eastern half and south of the island. For a full list of advisories, please click here. The approaching storm and adverse conditions have resulted in numerous commercial flight and ferry cancellations. Several cities have announced bank, school, and government office closures.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued red-level (third highest level) warnings for high waves and yellow (fourth highest) gale and thunderstorm warnings for Okinawa Prefecture through at least the afternoon Oct. 5.

The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) 3 for northern Batanes and TCWS 2 for the rest of Batanes and the northern portion of Babuyan Islands. Heavy rainfall is forecast over Batanes and the Babuyan Islands located north of Luzon through the afternoon of Oct. 5.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger additional localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also likely to persist. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Hong Kong Observatory
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
Taiwan Central Weather Bureau
China Meteorological Administration