South China Sea: Tropical Depression 16W tracking northwestward off the coast of central Vietnam as of late Oct. 17

Event

Tropical Depression 16W has formed in the South China Sea off the east coast of central Vietnam and is tracking northwestward late Oct. 17. As of 19:00 ICT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 174 km (108 miles) east of Da Nang.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen slightly as it continues to track northwestward and passes close to Hainan Island, China, late Oct. 18-early Oct. 19. The system is expected to briefly strengthen into a tropical storm as it reaches the Gulf of Tonkin Oct. 19 before the storm turns to track sharply westward late Oct. 19-20. The system is forecast to weaken back into a tropical depression as it turns to track south-southwestward and then southward Oct. 21- 22 and will likely dissipate before it reaches the north-central Vietnam coast. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

Vietnam's National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting (NCHMF) has issued a warning bulletin for the storm system, advising that heavy rainfall is likely late Oct. 17-19 from Quang Tri to Quang Nam provinces and moderate-to-heavy rainfall in Ha Tinh, Quang Binh, Quang Ngai provinces. Further heavy rainfall is likely in northeastern and north-central regions from Oct 19. Rough seas are also forecast in coastal areas over the coming days. The China Meteorological Administration has issued a blue typhoon warning (the lowest level on a four-tier scale) for Hainan Island. Heavy rainfall and rough seas are forecast over the coming days.

Heavy rainfall in recent days has caused flooding in parts of central Vietnam. More than 7,600 people have been displaced in Da Nang and Thua Thien Hue provinces and more than 1,500 homes have been damaged, predominantly in Da Nang City. Authorities have also reported that 15 fishermen are missing after two vessels capsized off the coast of central Vietnam.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Vietnam National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting (NCHMF)