Egypt: Heightened security likely in Sinai Peninsula through December /update 2

Heightened security is likely in the North Sinai and South Sinai governorates through December in response to the conflict in the Gaza Strip. Egyptian officials are likely to focus on the shared border with Gaza, particularly near the Rafah Border Crossing, to prevent militant infiltration and to manage any future displacement of civilians from Gaza into Egypt.

Additional security force deployments and checkpoints are likely near Egyptian government interests, transport hubs, tourist sites, shared borders, and major routes. Officials could impose movement restrictive measures in response to developments. The status of the Rafah Border Crossing and other crossings, including Taba, will probably remain fluid. Temporary closures are likely in response to security assessments and developments. Disruptions to operations at El-Arish International Airport (AAC) are also possible. Egyptian authorities have designated the airport as the site for the receipt of humanitarian assistance.

Conflict spillover, including rocket or gunfire, from Gaza into Egypt is possible over the near term. Any spillover is likely to impact the immediate border area only. Demonstrations by Palestinians in the Sinai area may occur. These are likely near crossings or Egyptian government buildings. Demonstrators could protest the conflict, the status of border crossings, or Egyptian policy vis-a-vis Gaza and Hamas.