19 Apr 2024 | 01:08 PM UTC
Middle East: Tensions likely to ease following Israel's limited strike inside Iran early Apirl 19 /update 1
Tensions likely to ease in the Middle East after Israel's attack inside Iran April 19. Residual disruptions likely through April 30.
Geopolitical tensions will likely ease in the Middle East following Israel's strike against a military base in Iran's Esfahan Province early April 19. Israel's anticipated retaliatory strike came a few days after Iran launched 331 drones and missiles against the country on April 13.
Initial reports from US officials indicated that Israel conducted a missile attack against air bases in Esfahan Province. However, Iran's Space Station Center's spokesperson immediately disputed this, asserting that the country's air defense systems shot down multiple small drones. Media outlets linked to the Iranian government, including Press TV, reported that the situation remained normal in Esfahan and that no attack occurred on the ground within the province.
While Tehran had warned of a "severe" counterattack in the event of an Israeli strike, Iran is highly unlikely to respond given the scope of the attack. There also appear to have been no casualties linked to the attack. Furthermore, Iranian media outlets associated with the government have downplayed the significance of Israel's attack.
At this point, both Israel and Iran appear to be content with how events unfolded. While the likelihood of a major escalation has decreased for now, Israel and Iran will likely revert to their decades-long shadow war, which has manifested in cyberattacks, targeted killings, and sabotage activities against commercial and military interests.
Disruptions to Business Operations and Transport
In the period immediately after the Israeli attack, Iranian authorities suspended flights at multiple airports across the country, April 19. However, flights were resumed shortly after once authorities determined that the Israeli attack had concluded. Out of an abundance of caution, some airline companies may temporarily suspend flights to Tehran and other regional capitals. For example, Lufthansa (LH), the flag carrier of Germany, has extended the suspension of flights to Tehran until April 30.
In the event that tensions worsen, which is unlikely at the moment, countries in the region will likely close their airspace and implement measures so as to mitigate threats to their citizens and commercial interests.
Adhere to all instructions issued by local officials and security forces. If an attack alert is issued in the general vicinity, stay indoors and away from windows and exterior walls. If possible, move to a ground floor, basement, or bunker. In the event of further projectile strikes, confirm flight reservations if traveling in the Middle East. Do not check out of accommodations until onward travel is confirmed. Maintain contact with your country's diplomatic mission.
Iran and Israel have engaged in a shadow war for years, shaping the region's geopolitical landscape. The Israeli government views Iran as an existential threat. Iran, in turn, is of the belief that Israel and its Western allies are attempting to destabilize its government. As part of its deterrence doctrine, Israel has regularly taken military action against Iran and its proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and elsewhere.
However, Israel's attack against the Iranian Consulate in Damascus April 1 in which seven members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were killed, including Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, prompted the Iranian government to retaliate forcefully. Iran's attack against Israel from within its territory, which had never occurred before, marked a significant shift in Tehran's approach to Israel. The Iranian government may again respond to a major Israeli attack on its personnel, assets, or interests in the region in a direct manner. IRGC Commander-in-Chief Major General Hossein Salami said after the attack that should the Israelis target Iran's defense forces and assets in the region, Tehran would counterattack from within its territory. By launching a direct attack April 13, Iran aimed to establish deterrence vis-a-vis Israel.
At this point, both countries are at a place where they can claim victory. Iran, at least in its estimation, has saved face and avenged the deaths of the IRGC members killed in the April 1 strike on its consulate building in Damascus. Meanwhile, Israel has asserted that its defensive performance has shown that its alliance network and multilayered air defense system successfully thwarted Iran's attack.
Iran-Israel's rivalry in the Middle East will continue. None of the parties, however, seem interested in escalating tensions to the point of direct conflict. Israel's April 19 attack was calibrated; it was designed to demonstrate the country's capabilities rather than cause severe damage.
