Israel, PT: Cross-border violence likely to escalate as Israeli military continues ground operations in Gaza Strip as of Nov. 2 /update 21

Fighting between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants will almost certainly continue across the Israel-Gaza border over the coming days in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas-led assault on Israel.

Latest Developments
Fighting between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants will likely escalate over the Israel-Gaza border over the coming days as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continue their ground operations in Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed the IDF began the second stage of its war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip late Oct. 28. At least 16 IDF soldiers have been killed in clashes with Gaza-based militants since Oct. 31.

Since the initial Hamas attack against Israel on Oct. 7, Gaza-based militants have fired thousands of projectiles, including rockets, missiles, and mortars, toward cities in the center and south of the country, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Moreover, the Lebanese militant group Hizballah continues to launch rockets and drones against targets in northern Israel, with Israeli forces carrying out retaliatory strikes on Hizballah sites in southern Lebanon. Al-Quds Brigades, the military wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) movement, has also claimed responsibility for ground infiltrations from southern Lebanon into northern Israel. Yemen's Al-Houthi rebels also confirmed their involvement in three projectile attacks against Israel's south. The rebel group claims they will launch further attacks so long as the war continues.

Gaza-based militants reportedly killed more than 1,400 people, most of them civilians, in their Oct. 7 attack on Israel. Additionally, Hamas took at least 239 Israelis and foreign nationals hostage in their assault, holding them in Gaza; four hostages have been released so far.

Gaza and the West Bank
As part of its Operation Swords of Iron, the IDF has launched major retaliatory airstrikes in Gaza, killing more than 8,300 people and wounding more than 20,000 others in the territory. Israeli authorities have also ordered a full siege of Gaza, cutting power, water, and gas amid the fighting; major disruptions to internet service and other telecommunications have also been reported. The Israeli government has instructed civilians in northern Gaza to evacuate to the southern part of the territory on several occasions to avoid the hostilities.

Additionally, violence has surged between Palestinians and Israeli forces and settlers in the West Bank, with more than 120 Palestinians killed in the territory since the Oct. 7 assault. Palestinian groups have also staged general strikes to show support for residents of Gaza. Further incidents of civil unrest and clashes are likely throughout the West Bank. Israeli security forces have reportedly arrested more than 1,500 Palestinians, mostly in the West Bank.

Israeli Ground Offensive
The IDF is continuing to conduct raids into Gaza and, per Netanyahu, expanding its attacks in the territory via land, air, and sea. As the IDF ramps up its ground operations in Gaza, it will likely continue to increase artillery strikes and airstrikes on the territory and escalate maritime operations in nearby coastal waters. Israel has called up some 360,000 reservists for duty, many of whom have deployed to areas around Gaza to support the ongoing ground operation. Numerous Israeli communities have been evacuated near the Gaza border, including Sderot. Israel has designated a closed military zone around Gaza and closed a 5 km- (3 mile-) wide strip along the nation's border with Lebanon, prohibiting public access.

Political Response
Netanyahu has declared Israel to be at war, and Israeli military officials also assert that the country is prepared to defend against military action by Hizballah militants in Lebanon. Authorities have declared a state of national civil emergency across Israel; the move enables law enforcement officers to exercise additional authority. Netanyahu and opposition leaders have formed an emergency government and established a war cabinet.

International diplomatic efforts continue in an attempt to secure a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza.

Travel Disruptions
The conflict has caused significant flight disruptions in Israel, with the Israel Airports Authority temporarily closing multiple airports in central and southern areas of the country. While Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport (TLV) remains open as of Nov. 2, several airlines have canceled flights to and from the facility in recent weeks. Nevertheless, El Al (LY) is still operating flights serving TLV, albeit on modified schedules.

Flight disruptions, including delays and cancellations, are likely at TLV and other airports in Israel until the situation stabilizes and rocket fire from Gaza subsides. Moreover, officials may suspend all flight operations at TLV on short notice in response to conflict developments. The Civil Aviation Authority has also banned sports and leisure flights from Israeli airspace until further notice.

The IDF has closed roads near the border with Gaza, including Route 4 from the Zikim junction to Netiv Ha'asara, Route 34 from the Yad Mordechai junction to Nir Am, and Route 232 from Mefalsim to Sa'ad and Nir Yitzhak to Kerem Shalom. Authorities have also closed the Zikim beach on the Gaza border and suspended train services between Ashkelon and Sderot. Crossings between the West Bank and Israel are either closed or under surveillance. The Rafah crossing has reportedly opened on a limited basis for foreign nationals, dual-passport holders, and some of the most seriously injured to cross from Gaza into Egypt Nov. 1. The Rafah crossing had previously opened for humanitarian aid, but substantive damage to roads and continued Israeli airstrikes in the area are hindering access. For further information on border crossing status, click here.

Tactical Analysis
Heightened security measures and disruptions to transport and business will almost certainly continue across Israel over at least the short term. Tight security is likely at all Israeli ports of entry. The status of border crossings, airports, seaports, roads, and rail services may change with little to notice depending on conflict developments.

Anti-Israel militants may stage opportunistic attacks from within the West Bank, southern Lebanon, and/or Israeli cities and towns. Conflict-related demonstrations have been reported in Israel and the Palestinian Territories, and additional rallies are likely in both locations. Clashes between demonstrators and security forces are possible at any demonstrations that materialize.