MENA: Pro-Palestinian rallies likely to continue across region through December /update 9

Pro-Palestinian rallies will likely continue across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region through December to demand an end to the war in the Gaza Strip. Conflict developments will continue to shape protest activity across the region, and the frequency and scale of demonstrations will probably spike following major escalations in conflict violence within the Gaza Strip. While many demonstrations will almost certainly exhibit a strong anti-Israeli and anti-Western sentiment, significant violence is unlikely at most rallies.

Demonstrations are likely to materialize across the region in the following areas:

• Near diplomatic missions and offices, particularly those of Israel, the Palestinian Authority, and the US and other Western nations.

• In Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, near their respective borders with Israel.

• Downtown areas, public squares, major government buildings, universities, and mosques.

Officials will almost certainly deploy a heightened security presence in areas that are subject to protest activity to monitor gatherings and manage crowds. Clashes between protesters and security forces are possible. Security personnel in Egypt, Jordan, and possibly Lebanon will likely seek to prevent demonstrators from marching toward their respective borders with Israel; confrontations are possible at any such events that materialize. Road transport disruptions are likely near all demonstrations. Businesses could also close in response to protests. Counterprotests are highly unlikely.

Attacks/Violent Incidents
An elevated threat of violence as well as increased security measures are likely near Jewish, Israeli, and overtly Western sites. Individuals or small groups could attempt to conduct attacks against these sites or individuals associated with them. Assailants could act on behalf of militant groups or alone. Additional attacks, including gun, knife, vehicle-ramming, or bomb attacks, cannot be ruled out.