Mexico: Adverse weather conditions forecast across much of the country through at least Nov. 23

Adverse weather conditions are forecast across much of Mexico through at least Nov. 23. A cold front is expected to move over central, eastern, southern, and southeastern regions over the coming days, bringing showers, storms, and strong winds to affected parts of the country. The front will draw in a mass of cold air behind it, leading to a drop in temperatures over central, eastern, and northern regions; temperatures well below 0 C (32 F) are forecast in mountainous parts of northern and north-central Mexico. The front will also drive a surge of cold winds known as a Norte event, which will bring strong gusts and rough seas to eastern coastal areas and the Gulf and Isthmus of Tehuantepec; winds gusting up to 100 kph (62 mph) and waves up to 5 meters (16 feet) are possible in affected areas Nov. 21-22.

The first winter storm of the season is also expected to develop over northwestern Mexico Nov. 21 and will track eastward across northern regions through Nov. 22 before exiting into southern Texas Nov. 23. The system may produce snowfall and sleet over mountainous areas of northern and north-central Mexico through early Nov. 23, as well as showers and strong winds over northern and western regions.

Rainfall totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) are expected in parts of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Tabasco, and Veracruz states Nov. 21-22 and 5-7.5 cm (2-3 inches) in Guerrero and Michoacan Nov. 21-22, Puebla Nov. 21, and Campeche and State of Mexico Nov. 22. The heavy downpours could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on unstable slopes.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout affected regions. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather may also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports across the affected region. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations along the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico coasts if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.