South Pacific Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Mal tracking south-southeastward in the South Pacific Ocean as of the afternoon of Nov. 14 /update 1

Category 2 Tropical Cyclone Mal is tracking south-southeastward across the South Pacific Ocean the afternoon of Nov. 14. As of 15:00 FJT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 546 km (340 miles) northwest of Suva, Fiji.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen slightly as it continues to track south-southeastward and makes a close approach to western Fiji early Nov. 15, before moving south of the islands late Nov. 15. Mal will likely weaken into a Category 1 tropical cyclone and then a tropical low as it continues to track south-southeastward across the South Pacific Ocean through Nov. 17. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of the afternoon of Nov. 14, the Fiji Meteorological Service has warned that strong winds may begin to affect the country in the coming hours, with the most destructive winds likely late Nov. 14-early Nov. 15. Heavy rainfall is likely across Fiji through at least early Nov. 15. The service has issued storm warnings for Yasawa and Mamanuca island groups, most of Viti Levu, Vatulele, Kadavu, and nearby smaller islands. Gale warnings are in place for Rotuma, western Vanua Levu, eastern Viti Levu, and Lomaiviti Island Group. Strong wind warnings are in place for the rest of Fiji. Heavy rain warnings are in force across Fiji, with flash flood alerts for flash flood-prone areas, small streams, and low-lying areas of Viti Levu. Authorities will likely update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days as the storm progresses.

Reports indicate that 56 families are taking shelter at two evacuation centers in the Western Division as a precaution. Schools across Fiji are closed through at least Nov. 15.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.