South Pacific Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Mal tracking south-southeastward to the west of Fiji as of early Nov. 15 /update 2

Category 2 Tropical Cyclone Mal is tracking south-southeastward in the South Pacific Ocean and is around 200 km (124 miles) west-northwest of Viti Levu Island, Fiji, early Nov. 15. As of 00:01 FJT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 313 km (194 miles) west-northwest of Suva, Fiji.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will continue to pass relatively close to western Fiji through the morning Nov. 15, before moving south of the islands late Nov. 15. Mal will likely weaken into a Category 1 tropical cyclone and then transition into a post-tropical cyclone as it continues to track south-southeastward across the South Pacific Ocean through early Nov. 18. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Nov. 15, the Fiji Meteorological Service has warned that strong winds, heavy rainfall, and thunderstorms will likely continue to affect much of the country in the coming hours, with the most severe weather likely in western regions. The service has issued storm warnings for Yasawa and Mamanuca island groups, most of Viti Levu, Vatulele, Kadavu, and nearby smaller islands. Gale warnings are in place for Rotuma, western Vanua Levu, eastern Viti Levu, and Lomaiviti Island Group. Strong wind warnings are in place for the rest of Fiji. Heavy rain warnings are in force across Fiji, with flash flood warnings for flash flood-prone areas, small streams, and low-lying areas of Viti Levu and flash flood alerts for parts of western Vanua Levu. Authorities will likely update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming hours and days as the storm progresses.

At least eight evacuation shelters have been established across the country and as of early Nov. 15 more than 290 people are being housed in these shelters. Schools across Fiji are closed through at least Nov. 15. Airports remain operational as of early Nov. 15; however, Virgin Australia (VA) canceled three return flights from Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane to Nadi Nov. 14. Further cancellations are possible over the coming hours.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.