South Pacific Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Mal tracking southeastward to the west of Fiji as of the afternoon of Nov. 15 /update 3

Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Mal is tracking southeastward in the South Pacific Ocean the afternoon of Nov. 15. As of 15:00 FJT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 248 km (154 miles) south of Suva, Fiji.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken into a Category 1 tropical cyclone and then transition into a post-tropical cyclone as it continues to track south-southeastward across the South Pacific Ocean, away from Fiji, through the afternoon of Nov. 17. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of the afternoon of Nov. 15, the Fiji Meteorological Service has warned that strong winds, heavy rainfall, and thunderstorms will likely continue to affect much of the country in the coming hours, with the most severe weather likely in western regions. The service is maintaining storm warnings for Kadavu and nearby smaller islands and gale warnings for southwestern Viti Levu and Vatulele. Strong wind warnings are in place for northern, western, and interior Viti Levu and Lomaiviti, Mamanuca, Matuku, Moala, and Totoya groups. Heavy rain warnings are in force across the greater Nadi area, Ba-Lautoka area, interior Ba, Sigatoka-Korolevu, coastal and interior Nadroga-Navosa, Kadavu, and nearby smaller islands. Authorities will likely update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming hours and days as the storm progresses.

Authorities have established at least eight evacuation shelters across the country, and as of early Nov. 15, more than 290 people are being housed in these shelters. Schools across Fiji are closed through at least Nov. 15. Virgin Australia (VA) canceled three return flights from Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane to Nadi Nov. 14. Fiji Airways (FJ) has delayed multiple flights to Australia, New Zealand, US, and Samoa and canceled dozens of domestic flights Nov. 15. Further cancellations are possible over the coming hours. Reports indicate power outages across parts of Nadi.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.