08 Dec 2023 | 10:52 AM UTC
DRC: Further clashes likely in North Kivu Province through at least late December amid renewed fighting /update 11
Further clashes likely through late December amid renewed fighting in North Kivu Province, DRC.
Further clashes involving the DRC Armed Forces (FARDC) and affiliated militias, the M23 rebels, and international forces are likely in North Kivu Province through late December amid a resumption of violence in Masisi, Nyiragongo, and Rutshuru territories since early October. As of Dec. 8, clashes are concentrated around Mushaki, a locality about 36 km (22 miles) west of Goma. In late October, fighting was reported around Kibumba, located about 20 km (13 miles) north of Goma. Renewed clashes are taking place amid the election period and the ongoing withdrawal of the East Africa Community Regional Force (EACRF). The United Nations Mission in DRC (MONUSCO) is also expected to leave in the coming months. The UN said that at least 450,000 people have been forced to flee the region since clashes resumed in early October.
Officials could implement movement-restrictive measures in response to developments. Renewed fighting may cause disruptions on main axes and hinder goods transport. Locals may stage further protests in the region, including Goma, to denounce the perceived inaction of FARDC or foreign forces. These demonstrations have become increasingly frequent and have sometimes left several participants or security forces dead.
Consider deferring nonessential travel to conflict-affected areas in eastern DRC until the situation stabilizes. Consult local security partners on the viability of traveling in the region. Reconfirm the status of roads and border crossings before departure. Travel in convoy and during daylight hours only. Adhere to directives issued by local authorities. Maintain contact with diplomatic missions.
The M23 is seeking to pressure the government to honor a peace agreement signed in 2013, which allows the reintegration of the armed forces into society, among other issues. The M23 has repeatedly asked for direct dialogue with DRC authorities, which have so far refused, making a conflict resolution difficult in the near term. Since November 2021, the M23 rebel group has increased attacks targeting armed forces in the eastern DRC, particularly across Rutshuru Territory.
The East Africa Community (EAC) leaders agreed in late 2022 to deploy a military force in eastern DRC: the EACRF, while the MONUSCO has been present in the country since 1999. DRC officials have accused these forces of inactivity and connivance with the M23. DRC and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) agreed in early May to deploy armed forces in the region; further details regarding the timeline or the number of troops and their mandate compared to the EACRF are unavailable.
Since the M23 resurgence, tensions between Rwanda and the DRC have significantly increased. DRC officials have accused Rwanda of supporting the rebels. Several cross-border incidents involving DRC and Rwanda occurred, including minor exchanges of fire between DRC and Rwandan security forces at the border crossing between Goma (DRC) and Gisenyi (Rwanda).
