29 Dec 2023 | 02:21 PM UTC
DRC: Further clashes likely in North Kivu Province through at least late February /update 12
Further clashes likely through late February amid deployment of regional force in North Kivu Province, DRC.
Further clashes involving the DRC Armed Forces (FARDC) and affiliated militias, international forces, and the M23 rebels are likely in North Kivu Province through late February amid the deployment of a Southern African Development Community (SADC) military force. Officials have not provided specific details regarding the number of troops and their mandate. Reports suggest that the force may include 7,000 personnel and assist the FARDC in combating armed groups, notably the M23. Further clashes will likely concentrate in the Masisi, Nyiragongo, and Rutshuru territories, subject to a resumption of violence since early October, forcing hundreds of thousands to flee the region.
Officials could implement movement-restrictive measures in response to developments. Renewed fighting may cause disruptions on main axes and hinder goods transport. Locals may stage further protests in the region, including Goma, to denounce the perceived inaction of FARDC or foreign forces. These demonstrations have become increasingly frequent and have sometimes left several participants or security forces dead.
Consider deferring nonessential travel to conflict-affected areas in eastern DRC until the situation stabilizes. Consult local security partners on the viability of traveling in the region. Reconfirm the status of roads and border crossings before departure. Travel in convoy and during daylight hours only. Adhere to directives issued by local authorities. Maintain contact with diplomatic missions.
The deployment of the SADC force is taking place amid the withdrawal of the East Africa Community (EAC) force deployed in late 2022 and the United Nations Mission in DRC (MONUSCO) deployed since 1999. DRC officials have accused these forces of inactivity and connivance with the M23.
The M23 is seeking to pressure the government to honor a peace agreement signed in 2013, which allows the reintegration of the armed forces into society, among other issues. The M23 has repeatedly asked for direct dialogue with DRC authorities, which have so far refused, making a conflict resolution difficult in the near term. Since November 2021, the M23 rebel group has increased attacks targeting armed forces in the eastern DRC, particularly across Rutshuru Territory.
Since the M23 resurgence, tensions between Rwanda and the DRC have significantly increased. DRC officials have accused Rwanda of supporting the rebels. Several cross-border incidents involving DRC and Rwanda occurred, including minor exchanges of fire between DRC and Rwandan security forces at the border crossing between Goma (DRC) and Gisenyi (Rwanda).
