27 Dec 2023 | 06:14 PM UTC
MENA: Pro-Palestinian rallies likely to continue across region through at least late January /update 10
Pro-Palestinian rallies likely to continue across Middle East and North Africa region through at least late January.
Rallies and demonstrations in solidarity with Palestinians will likely continue across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region through at least late January. Organizers of these events and individuals who participate in them continue to demand a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip amid the Israel-Hamas war. Conflict developments will shape the scale and intensity of the demonstrations. While many demonstrations will almost certainly manifest a strong anti-Israeli and anti-Western sentiment, significant violence is unlikely at most rallies.
Demonstrations are likely to materialize across the region in the following areas:
Near diplomatic missions and offices, particularly those of Israel, the US, and other Western nations.
In Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, near their respective borders with Israel.
Downtown areas, public squares, major government buildings, universities, and mosques.
Officials will almost certainly maintain a heightened security presence in areas that are subject to protest activity to monitor gatherings and manage crowds. Clashes between protesters and security forces are possible. Security personnel in Egypt, Jordan, and possibly Lebanon will likely seek to prevent demonstrators from marching toward their respective borders with Israel; confrontations are possible at any such events that materialize. Road transport disruptions are likely near all protests. Businesses could also close in response to protests.
Attacks/Violent Incidents
An elevated threat of violence as well as increased security measures are likely near Jewish, Israeli, and overtly Western facilities. Individuals or small groups could attempt to conduct attacks against these sites or individuals associated with them. Assailants could act on behalf of militant groups or alone. Gun, knife, vehicle-ramming, or bomb attacks cannot be ruled out.
Monitor developments closely. Exercise heightened caution near all likely protest sites and on likely protest days. Avoid all demonstrations as a precaution. Heed the instructions of officials. Plan for localized road transport delays near protest sites. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Western and Israeli nationals should maintain a low public profile. Consider avoiding sensitive topics of conversation, particularly with persons unknown to you.
The Gaza-based Hamas militant group launched a surprise land, sea, and air assault against Israel early Oct. 7. Hamas called the operation "Al-Aqsa Flood." It is the largest and most coordinated attack against Israel in decades. The assault coincided with the Jewish religious holiday Simchat Torah and occurred, perhaps not coincidentally, 50 years and a day after the beginning of the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Allies of Israel, including states with no official relations, such as Saudi Arabia, have condemned the attack, while supporters of Hamas, including Iran and Hizballah, have celebrated it. Israel has launched a large-scale ground offensive in the Gaza Strip with the stated goal of dismantling Hamas and its military infrastructure.
