Myanmar: Armed clashes in northern and western regions persist as of Dec. 18 /update 3

Significant ground, air transport, and land border transit disruptions continue as armed clashes in northern and western Myanmar persist, as of Dec. 18. The disruptions started after the military commenced ground and air operations in response to coordinated attacks by a coalition of anti-regime militant groups Oct. 27. The attacks primarily targeted military installations, military-controlled villages, security checkpoints, and major interstate highways. Lashio Airport (LSH), Loikaw Airport (LIW), and Kalaymyo Airport (KMV) remain closed indefinitely; it is unclear when normal operations will resume. Militants have reportedly occupied over 180 junta military bases and closed at least four official border crossings with China, with curfews active in Sittwe, Rakhine State, and multiple areas of northern Shan State. The conflict has displaced around 660,000 people. Further clashes are likely across northern Shan, Kayin, Kayah, Mon, Chin, and Rakhine states, and Mandalay, upper Sagaing, and Magway regions, including near border checkpoints with China, Thailand, India, and Bangladesh over the coming weeks.

Although the most intense fighting is concentrated in northern Shan State, related attacks by anti-junta groups have also occurred in the following areas:

• Mandalay Region: Pyin Oo Lwin and Madaya townships

• Sagaing Region: Loikaw, Kawlin, Tamu, Pinlebu, Tigyaing townships

• Magway Region: Gangaw Township

• Kayin State: Kawkareik Township

• Kayah State: Mese, Demoso, Hpruso townships

• Mon State: Kyaikmaraw Township

• Chin State: Tedim, Matupi, Falam and Paletwa townships

• Rakhine State: Kyauktaw, Ponnagyun, Pauktaw, Rathedaung, Buthidaung, Maungdaw, and Minbya townships

• Bago State: Gyobingauk, Paungde, Yedashe townships

Other areas are also likely to see an intensification of similar attacks, likely prompting additional security force deployments. The tightest security is most likely at border and entry points to major cities like Mandalay. Further airstrikes in strongholds of armed groups are possible, posing a risk of collateral damage to civilian life and property. Multiple countries continue to advise against all or nonessential travel to Myanmar or affected regions like the northern areas of Mandalay Region and Shan State.

Authorities are imposing martial law in Konekyan, Kunlong, Kutkai, Lashio, Laukkaing, Muse, Namkham, and Hseni townships in northern Shan State, and Loikaw Township in Kayah State until further notice; such movement restrictions and nonessential business closures are likely in other regions if clashes continue. Banks in Lashio are reportedly operating at reduced operating hours after a Nov. 6 explosion targeting a private bank; similar attacks may further limit cash availability.

Ground transport disruptions are occurring between:

• Townships within Shan and Mon States

• Lashio and Mandalay

• Yangon and Sittwe

• Chin State and Sagaing Region

• Chin State and Magwe Region

Additionally, all ground and river transport connecting Rakhine State is blocked. Ground transport and shipping disruptions are affecting trade with China, Bangladesh, and India. Border gates to China in Mongla, eastern Shan State, reportedly remain open. Cargo flights between Yangon International Airport (YIA) and Kunming in China are available. Additional ground transport and shipping disruptions, including at the Thai border, are likely at short notice. Mandalay (MDL) and Naypyidaw (NYT) international airports could also experience delays due to increased traffic from military aircraft; flight suspensions are probable if fighting escalates.

Utility and telecommunication outages are affecting conflict-hit areas of northern Shan State and Sagaing Region; Sagaing Region and Rakhine State are reportedly facing severe fuel shortages. Security restrictions and infrastructure damage may cause similar disruptions in other impacted areas at short notice.