15 Jan 2024 | 11:36 PM UTC
Arabian Peninsula: Continued attacks against vessels in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden likely through late January following airstrikes against Al-Houthi targets /update 6
Further attacks in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden likely through late January following US and UK airstrikes against Al-Houthi targets.
Further maritime incidents and associated disruptions are likely in the waters around the Arabian Peninsula through at least late January amid prevailing heightened tensions. Al-Houthi forces continue to target vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, including US Navy warships. Though the Al-Houthi rebels initially claimed that their attacks would target Israel-linked assets in solidarity with Palestinians amid the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip, they have also struck vessels with no apparent links to Israel. Furthermore, the group is likely to openly strike US- and UK-linked vessels in the coming days following airstrikes by these countries against Al-Houthi targets in Yemen. Shipping from other states deemed by the Al-Houthis to have aided the US and UK strikes may also be targeted. Iran, too, has seized a tanker with alleged links to the US in the Gulf of Oman and is suspected of targeting Israel-linked vessels in the Arabian Sea.
Although none have been struck, at least one US Navy warship has been targeted by Al-Houthi forces. A US-led expanded maritime protection force in and around the Red Sea, dubbed Operation Prosperity Guardian, has been set up to provide additional security for shipping in the region. US, UK, and French naval forces have destroyed several unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), missiles, and speedboats, as well as at least one unmanned surface vehicle (USV).
Major shipping companies, including Maersk, CMA CGM, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and COSCO maintain a policy of reduced or suspended transits through the Red Sea as of mid-January due to the increased threat posed by Al-Houthi rebels amid heightened regional tensions stemming from the Israel-Hamas conflict. CMA CGM, MSC, and COSCO have announced a partial suspension, permitting some vessels to transit the Red Sea while rerouting others around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa. Hapag-Lloyd and oil and gas producers BP and QatarEnergy have implemented a total suspension. Maersk announced Dec. 24 that it would allow some vessels to make the transit after nine days of suspension but reinstated the suspension indefinitely following an attack on one of its vessels Dec. 30. Companies have also ceased offering services to and from Israel, including COSCO and a number of its subsidiaries. Additional companies may also halt operations in the Red Sea or to Israel in the near term.
Attacks are typically preceded by an entity claiming to be the Yemeni Navy hailing the vessel on Channel 16 VHF in an attempt to divert the vessel toward Yemen. Individuals may also attempt to board the vessel from skiffs or fast boats, and exchanges of fire with ships' armed security teams have been reported.
As of Jan. 15, the following incidents had been reported:
Jan. 15: US officials announced that the US-owned cargo ship Gibraltar Eagle had been struck by a missile in the Gulf of Aden. The attack caused a fire on board, but the vessel remained seaworthy. No casualties were reported.
Jan. 14: A US fighter aircraft shot down an anti-ship cruise missile off the coast of Al-Hudaydah. The missile had been fired toward US destroyer USS Laboon.
Jan. 12: Al-Houthi forces reportedly mistakenly targeted a tanker carrying Russian oil in the Gulf of Aden. A missile impacted the water 400-500 meters (440-550 yards) from the ship, with three small seacraft approaching shortly after. The targeted vessel had previous connections to the UK.
Jan. 11: US and UK forces targeted Al-Houthi command-and-control, storage, radar, and missile and drone launch sites using air- and sea-launched missiles. At least 60 sites were targeted. Further strikes have taken place in the following days.
Jan. 11: Iranian media announced the seizure of the tanker St Nikolas, formerly Suez Rajan, in the Gulf of Oman. The vessel had been previously seized by the US in April 2023 for carrying Iranian oil in breach of US sanctions. The oil was subsequently sold by the US.
Jan. 9: US officials announced that Al-Houthi rebels had launched 18 drones and three anti-ship missiles in what officials called a “complex” attack targeting shipping in the southern Red Sea. The projectiles were shot down by US and UK air and naval forces. In a separate incident off Mocha, the crew of a cargo vessel reported the approach of three skiffs to within 1 nautical mile (1.9 km, 1.2 miles), with two missiles being launched in the vessel’s direction from the boats. The EU’s naval reporting mission Maritime Security Centre - Horn of Africa (MSCHOA) stated that another vessel was subsequently targeted by the three skiffs. No damage or casualties were reported. The incidents came a day after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken issued a warning to the Al-Houthis, stating that there would be “consequences” if they continued to target shipping.
In addition, a number of weaponized drones and ballistic and cruise missiles have been intercepted in the Red Sea region by US, Israeli, and Saudi Arabian air defenses. Impacts have been reported in Egypt and Jordan. Electronic interference, drone sightings, and instructions from individuals claiming to be Yemeni authorities have also been reported throughout the region in recent months.
A heightened naval presence is certain in the region as the conflict between Hamas and Israel continues. Further attacks are likely in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and northern Arabian Sea in the coming days and weeks. Maritime disruptions are likely to occur.
Exercise caution and reconfirm routes with maritime authorities if transiting or shipping freight near the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, or northern Arabian Sea. Companies should regularly review their ship security assessment and plan under the International Ship and Port Facility Security Code (ISPS), particularly in piracy-prone areas. Companies are advised to maintain strict anti-piracy watches and report all pirate activity - including both actual and attempted attacks, as well as suspicious sightings - to local naval authorities.
The recent developments coincide with increased tensions in the region connected to the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. Iranian-backed groups throughout the region have pledged solidarity with Palestinians and carried out attacks against Israeli or US-linked targets since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack in southern Israel and the subsequent Israeli response.
Yemen's Iran-backed Al-Houthi rebels have stated that they regard Israeli shipping as a legitimate target and that they would continue attacks until Israel's operations in Gaza come to an end. The Al-Houthis possess an extensive arsenal of anti-shipping weaponry, including naval mines, waterborne improvised explosive devices (WBIED), drones, and anti-ship cruise missiles. The group has previously attempted to seize vessels in the vicinity of Al-Hudaydah and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and reports of suspicious approaches involving skiffs are relatively commonplace. US, Saudi, and Emirati naval vessels, as well as a number of civilian ships, have also been targeted during the nearly decade-long Yemeni Civil War. The Al-Houthis also possess ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and weaponized drones, some of which have the range to strike targets in Israel, and the group has claimed a number of attempted strikes on Israeli territory since Oct. 7.
Iran has struck Israel-linked shipping in the Arabian Sea multiple times in recent years. Typically, incidents involve the use of weaponized drones at long distances from shore and occur during periods of heightened tensions between the two countries, such as after alleged Israeli attacks on Iranian interests in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, or at sea.
