Indian Ocean: Severe Tropical Storm Belal tracking south-southwestward off Reunion, Jan. 13 /update 1

Severe Tropical Storm Belal is tracking south-southwestward in the western Indian Ocean Jan. 13. As of 16:00 RET, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 446 km (277 miles) north-northwest of Saint-Denis, Reunion.

Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen into a tropical cyclone as it tracks south-southwestward and then southward Jan. 14. The system is forecast to reach intense tropical cyclone strength Jan. 15 as it turns to track southeastward before making landfall over northern Reunion during the afternoon of Jan. 15. Having passed Reunion, the system is expected to weaken back into a tropical cyclone as it tracks generally east-southwestward away from the Mascarene Islands through Jan. 18. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.

Meteo France La Reunion will upgrade a yellow pre-cyclone warning (the lowest level on a four-tier scale) to an orange warning at 19:00 RET Jan. 13. Yellow heavy rain/thunderstorm and strong wind warnings are also in place across Reunion and yellow rough sea warnings have been issued for northern and eastern coastal areas. The Mauritius Meteorological Service has issued a class one (out of four) cyclone warning for Mauritius Jan. 13. Strong winds and showers are starting to impact both Reunion and Mauritius Jan. 13 and will intensify over the coming days as the storm approaches. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

Authorities in Reunion have advised people to take shelter by late Jan. 14. A list of reception centers for those in need of shelter is expected to be announced in the coming hours. Several flight schedules have been modified at Roland Garros Airpor (RUN) due to the approach of the storm and flights are expected to be suspended from 15:00 Jan. 14; passengers are advised to contact their airlines to confirm the status of flights.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.