18 Nov 2024 | 09:24 AM UTC
Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Bheki tracking south-southwestward in the western Indian Ocean Nov. 18
Tropical Cyclone Bheki tracking south-southwestward in the Indian Ocean Nov. 18. Close approach to Rodrigues, Mauritius, late Nov. 19.
Tropical Cyclone Bheki is tracking south-southwestward in the western Indian Ocean Nov. 18. As of 13:00 MUT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 1,298 km (807 miles) east of Port Louis, Mauritius.
Forecast models indicate the system will weaken into a severe and then moderate tropical storm as it continues to track generally south-southwestward across the western Indian Ocean Nov. 18-19 before passing close to the north of Rodrigues Island, Mauritius, late Nov. 19-early Nov. 20. Bheki is expected to continue to weaken as it continues to track south-southwestward and passes just south of Mauritius main island early Nov. 21 and will transition into a tropical depression as it turns to track southwestward and passes close to the southeast of Reunion Nov. 21. The system will weaken further into a zone of disturbed weather as it tracks southwestward away from the Mascarene Islands through Nov. 22. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.
As of Nov. 18, the Mauritius Meteorological Service has issued a class one (out of four) cyclone warning for Rodrigues Island. Winds are expected to gradually increase and seas will become increasingly rough as the storm system approaches the island Nov. 18-19. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast adverse weather conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surges. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
