Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Belal tracking south-southwestward off Reunion, Jan. 14 /update 2

Tropical Cyclone Belal is tracking south-southwestward in the western Indian Ocean Jan. 14. As of 16:00 RET, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 222 km (138 miles) west-northwest of Saint-Denis, Reunion.

Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen slightly as it tracks southeastward through early Jan. 15 before passing very close to the southwestern coast of Reunion during the afternoon Jan. 15. Having passed Reunion, the system is expected to weaken into a severe tropical stormas it tracks east-southwestward and the eastward away from the Mascarene Islands through Jan. 18. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Jan. 14, Meteo France La Reunion has issued an orange cyclone warning (the second lowest level on a four-tier scale) across the territory. The warning is set to be upgraded to a red warning level at 20:00 Jan. 14. Red rough sea warnings have also been issued for all coastal areas. Strong winds and heavy downpours are likely across Reunion from late Jan. 14 through Jan. 15. The Mauritius Meteorological Service has issued a class one (out of four) cyclone warning for Mauritius. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

Authorities in Reunion have advised people to take shelter late Jan. 14 until the storm has passed. A list of reception centers for those in need of shelter can be found here. Operations have been suspended at Roland Garros Airpor (RUN) from 16:00 Jan. 14 until further notice. The island's coastal road has also been closed from 16:00 Jan. 14 until further notice.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.