Indian Ocean: Tropical Storm Candice forms southeast of Mauritius early Jan. 25 /update 1

An area of low pressure that has been bringing adverse weather across the Mascarene Islands has developed into Moderate Tropical Storm Candice off the southeast coast of Mauritius early Jan. 25. As of 04:00 MUT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 146 km (91 miles) east-southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.

Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen into a severe tropical storm as it tracks south-southeastward and then southward away from the Mascarene Islands through Jan. 26. The system is expected to weaken into a moderate tropical storm and then a tropical low before dissipating as it tracks south-southwestward and then southeastward further into the southwestern Indian Ocean through Jan. 29. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.

Further adverse weather is likely over Mauritius and Reunion through at least Jan. 26 as the system moves away from the Mascarene Islands. As of Jan. 25, the Mauritius Meteorological Services is maintaining a Class 2 (out of four) cyclone warning across the main island of Mauritius. Services on the Metro Express light rail system have been suspended Jan. 25. Air Mauritius (MK) has rescheduled several flights from Seewoosagur Ramgoolam International (MRU) through Jan. 26.

Meteo France La Reunion has issued yellow heavy rainfall and thunderstorm warnings (the lowest level on a three-tier scale) for southern and southeastern regions and yellow strong wind warnings are in place for southeastern and western regions. A cyclone backup phase warning is current; however, this refers to the passing of Cyclone Belal over the territory Jan. 15. Bus services are suspended on some lines in southern and southeastern regions, and several roads are closed across the southern half of the island due to flooding and landslides as of Jan. 25. Schools have been closed in 12 municipalities due to the adverse weather.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.