Mexico: Adverse weather conditions forecast across northern and northwestern regions through at least Feb. 3

Adverse weather conditions are forecast across much of northern and northwestern Mexico through at least Feb. 3. A polar trough moving over the region Jan. 30-31 is expected to bring showers and cold temperatures to much of the affected area, as well as snowfall over mountainous parts of Chihuahua, Durango, and Sonora states. A cold front is expected to approach Baja California State from Feb. 1 and will interact with a new polar trough to generate a winter storm system over the region. The storm will bring heavier rainfall and strong winds to the region, as well as snowfall over mountainous parts of Baja California from Feb. 1 and extending to elevated areas of Chihuahua, Durango, Sinaloa, and Sonora from early Feb. 2 and Coahuila and Zacatecas from early Feb. 3. Daily rainfall totals of 5-7.5 cm (2-3 inches) are expected in parts of Baja California Feb. 1 and Chihuahua, Durango, Sinaloa, and Sonora Feb. 2. The heavy downpours could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on unstable slopes. Winds gusting up to 110 kph (68 mph) are possible in parts of Chihuahua and Durango Feb. 2; strong winds may generate dust storms in arid parts of the region and could cause property damage and power outages. Temperatures may reach as low as -10 C (14 F) in mountainous parts of the region over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout affected regions. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather may also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports across the affected region. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations along the Pacific and Gulf of California coasts if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.