16 Feb 2024 | 09:48 AM UTC
Cook Islands: Tropical Cyclone 15 tracking southeastward through the Southern Cook Islands late Feb. 15
TC 15 tracking southeastward in the South Pacific Ocean late Feb. 15. Forecast to pass through the Cook Islands through Feb. 16.
Tropical Cyclone 15 is tracking southeastward in the South Pacific Ocean and is moving through the Cook Islands late Feb. 15. As of 20:00 CKT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 110 km (68 miles) east of Palmerston Island, Southern Cook Islands.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen slightly as it tracks generally southeastward through the Southern Cook Islands through Feb. 16, passing close to Rarotonga and Mangaia islands early Feb. 16. The system is expected to transition into a post-tropical cyclone as it turns to track south-southeastward away from the Southern Cook Islands late Feb. 16-early Feb. 17. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.
As of late Feb. 15, the Cook Islands Meteorological Service has issued gale and strong wind warnings across the Southern Cook Islands and a coastal inundation warning is in place for all low-lying coastal areas. Winds gusting up to 101 kph (63 mph), heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and possible flooding are expected across the Southern Cook Islands through at least Feb. 16.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
