19 Feb 2024 | 03:25 PM UTC
DRC: Further clashes likely through at least late February amid renewed violence in North Kivu Province /update 14
Further clashes likely through late February amid resumption of fighting near Sake and Goma, North Kivu Province, DRC.
Armed clashes and increased military movement will likely persist in the North Kivu Province through at least late February amid renewed violence. Since early February, clashes involving the DRC Armed Forces (FARDC) and affiliated militias, international forces, and the M23 rebels have been reported, particularly around Sake, located about 25 km (15 miles) west of Goma, forcing thousands of civilians to flee towards Goma, up to 135,000 according to latest estimates. The UN said that violence has left at least 15 civilians dead and 29 others injured; the casualty toll is likely higher. In addition, at least two South African soldiers - part of the Southern African Development Community Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (SAMIDRC) - have been killed and three others injured in a mortar attack in Goma on Feb. 14.
The fighting has caused disruptions on the road axis to and from Goma. While the exact status of the roads is subject to constant change, concerns grew in recent days about a potential capture of Sake, which may significantly disrupt the supply of goods towards Sake and Goma from the north, the west, and the south, leaving only the land border with Rwanda as the remaining road exit of the region. However, as of Feb. 19, Sake and Goma remain under Congolese control. In addition, FARDC officials attributed a drone attack at Goma International Airport (GOM) on Feb. 17 to Rwanda. There have been no reports of casualties or extensive damage; however, at least one aircraft sustained damage.
The situation has drawn growing international attention. On Feb. 17, the US attributed the renewed clashes to M23 rebels supported by Rwanda and called for the departure of all Rwandan forces and their military equipment in eastern DRC, citing the threat to civilians, UN and humanitarian actors, as well as commercial flights. The US also called on DRC to cease cooperation with the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) armed group. Multiple human rights organizations, the UN, the EU, and the US had previously denounced the alleged support provided by Rwanda to M23 rebels, an accusation Rwanda has so far refuted.
Further clashes will likely concentrate in the Masisi, Nyiragongo, and Rutshuru territories surrounding Goma. Officials could implement movement-restrictive measures in response to developments. Renewed fighting may cause disruptions on main axes and hinder goods transport. Locals may stage further protests in the region, including Goma, to denounce the perceived inaction of FARDC or foreign forces. These demonstrations have become increasingly frequent and have sometimes left several participants or security forces injured or killed.
Consider deferring nonessential travel to conflict-affected areas in eastern DRC until the situation stabilizes. Consult local security partners on the viability of traveling in the region. Reconfirm the status of roads and border crossings before departure. Travel in convoy and during daylight hours only. Adhere to directives issued by local authorities. Maintain contact with diplomatic missions.
Details concerning the deployment of the SAMIDRC military force are limited. The force may include 7,000 personnel and assist the FARDC in combating armed groups, notably the M23. The SAMIDRC deployment follows the withdrawal of the East Africa Community (EAC) force deployed in late 2022 and the United Nations Mission in DRC (MONUSCO) deployed since 1999. DRC officials have accused these forces of inactivity and connivance with the M23.
Since the M23 resurgence, tensions have increased between Rwanda and its neighbors, particularly with DRC. DRC officials have accused Rwanda of supporting the rebels. Several cross-border incidents involving DRC and Rwanda occurred, including minor exchanges of fire between DRC and Rwandan security forces at the border crossing between Goma (DRC) and Gisenyi (Rwanda).
The M23 is seeking to pressure the government to honor a peace agreement signed in 2013, which allows the reintegration of the armed forces into society, among other issues. The M23 has repeatedly asked for direct dialogue with DRC authorities, which have so far refused, making a conflict resolution difficult in the near term. Since November 2021, the M23 rebel group has increased attacks targeting armed forces in the eastern DRC.
