Indian Ocean: Moderate Tropical Storm Eleanor tracking east-southeastward to the north-northeast of Mauritius as of Feb. 20

Moderate Tropical Storm Eleanor is tracking east-southeastward in the western Indian Ocean Feb. 20. As of 16:00 MUT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 872 km (542 miles) north-northeast of Saint-Denis, Reunion.

Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen into a severe tropical storm and then a tropical cyclone as it tracks south-southeastward and then south-southwestward toward Mauritius through Feb. 22. Eleanor is forecast to weaken back to a severe tropical storm as it passes to the east of Mauritius Feb. 23. The system is then expected to weaken further into a moderate tropical storm before turning to track west-northwestward toward Reunion Feb. 24 and weakening into a tropical depression as it passes south of Reunion Feb. 25. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.

The Mauritius Meteorological Service has issued a class one (out of four) cyclone warning for Mauritius as of Feb. 20. The weather will likely deteriorate from Feb. 21 as the storm approaches, with heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, strong winds, and rough seas expected. Meteo France La Reunion has yet to issue any warnings as of Feb. 20 but has warned of strong winds and heavy rainfall over parts of the territory from Feb. 22. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

Air Mauritius (MK) has issued a statement warning of possible disruptions to operations during the passing of Eleanor, particularly during Feb. 22-23, and is offering passengers the opportunity to rearrange their flights free of charge.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.