Indian Ocean: Moderate Tropical Storm Eleanor tracking south-southwestward to the northeast of Mauritius as of Feb. 21 /update 1

Moderate Tropical Storm Eleanor is tracking south-southwestward in the western Indian Ocean to the northeast of Mauritius Feb. 21. As of 16:00 MUT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 674 km (419 miles) northeast of Saint-Denis, Reunion.

Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen into a severe tropical storm as it continues to track south-southwestward before passing to the east of Mauritius' main island Feb. 22. Eleanor is forecast to weaken back to a moderate tropical storm Feb. 23 before turning to track west-northwestward and dissipating after passing south of Reunion Feb. 24-25. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.

The Mauritius Meteorological Service has issued a class two (out of four classes) cyclone warning for Mauritius as of Feb. 21. Clouds from the outer bands of Eleanor are expected to begin affecting Mauritius' main island from late Feb. 21 and the weather is expected to rapidly deteriorate from early Feb. 22 as the storm approaches, with heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, strong winds, and rough seas expected. A heavy rain watch and strong wind warning have also been issued for Rodrigues Island.

Meteo France La Reunion has a yellow pre-cyclone alert (the lowest level on a four-tier scale) across the territory as of Feb. 21. Yellow heavy rainfall and thunderstorm warnings are in place for southeastern areas and yellow rough sea warnings along the east coast. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

Air Mauritius (MK) has announced that flights departing from Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport (CDG) and London Gatwick (LGW) to Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam International Airport (MRU) in Mauritius have been canceled Feb. 21 and the flight from MRU to O.R. Tambo International Airport (JNB) in Johannesburg Feb. 22 will be brought forward from 09:25 to 06:00. Further cancelations, delays, and rescheduling of flights are likely over the coming days. The airline has offered all passengers traveling through Feb. 29 the opportunity to change their flight to another on the same route before March 31 free of charge.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.