14 Feb 2024 | 05:10 PM UTC
Pakistan: Post-election rallies likely nationwide through at least mid-February /update 5
Protests likely to continue in Pakistan through at least mid-February following general elections. Exercise caution.
Activist groups will likely continue their ongoing campaigns of demonstrations across Pakistan into at least mid-February following the nation's Feb. 8 general elections. Various political parties and coalitions, including the Awami National Party (ANP), Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA), Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F), Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), and Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan (TLP), have held protests in several locations, including Karachi and Rawalpindi. As of Feb. 14, organizers have announced the following details concerning their planned actions:
Feb. 15: In Balochistan Province, activists affiliated with the so-called Four-Party Alliance will stage various protests and road blockades along national highways.
Feb. 16: GDA activists will protest along the Hyderabad Bypass in Sindh Province. Additionally, the Jamaat-e-Islami party will rally at an unspecified location in Islamabad.
Feb. 17: In Quetta, local politicians reportedly plan to address a public gathering at an undisclosed venue.
Feb. 18: In Balochistan Province, activists reportedly plan to hold road blockades along national highways.
Feb. 20: In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, the ANP will launch a protest campaign from Swabi District starting on Feb. 20.
Feb. 23: In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, ANP activists plan to gather at an unspecified location in Charsadda District.
Although no other details were immediately available concerning additional gatherings, further demonstrations of varying types are highly likely over the coming days. Potential protest sites include prominent political party offices, government buildings, police stations, public squares, sports fields, press clubs, and thoroughfares. Larger rallies could draw hundreds of thousands of attendees.
Authorities will almost certainly maintain an increased security presence over the coming days. Officials suspended mobile telecommunication and internet services during and immediately following the general elections due to security concerns, in addition to imposing public gathering restrictions in several parts of the country, including the capital. The decision came after a surge of violence preceding the elections in certain restive areas of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces. Attacks by militant groups, such as the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), are possible in the aftermath of the general elections, particularly in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces near the Afghanistan border. Officials could order additional restrictions, including temporary public movement restrictions or further telecommunication curbs, depending on the severity of any perceived threats. Acts of intimidation and attacks on political party offices, candidates, and supporters remain possible over the short term. Associated transport and business disruptions are highly likely.
Exercise increased caution if operating in Pakistan through mid-February. Avoid political party offices, political rallies, polling stations, and government buildings, where political unrest is most likely to occur. Prepare for heightened security, including roadblocks and identification checks. Plan accordingly for localized business disruptions. If a large mob begins forming, immediately leave the area or seek shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Monitor trusted media for updates on protests. Maintain contact with your diplomatic mission. Carry valid identification and heed instructions from security personnel.
The Election Commission of Pakistan's (ECP) decision to postpone the official results, now slated for release on Feb. 22, further complicates the political landscape following the divided mandate of the Feb. 8 elections, where no single party emerged with a clear majority. Despite emerging as the leading party in terms of seats through independent candidates, former Prime Minister Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) faces considerable legal obstacles in its bid to form a government. This challenge is compounded by PTI's reluctance to engage in coalition-building with other parties, amidst swirling allegations of electoral irregularities. Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN), despite securing fewer seats, has been proactive in forging alliances with smaller parties, including the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), to bolster its claim to power. The political uncertainty is further exacerbated by legal disputes over election results and the uncertain status of PTI-backed independents. As the constitutional deadline for the convening of the National Assembly approaches on Feb. 29, political parties will remain under pressure to accelerate negotiations and reach consensus on government formation.
